Weekly Forex Forecast (June 26-30, 2023)

Today I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD next week.

We had some great setups work out in our favor last week, including EURUSD and AUDUSD, and this week promises to have even more opportunities.

Watch the video and scroll down for the annotated charts and analysis.

Let’s begin!

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DXY Forecast

I continue to be bullish on the US Dollar Index (DXY) over the longer term.

I’ve maintained that bullishness since April, when the index sat at 101.00.

The dollar has pulled back significantly since then, but as mentioned in last week’s EURUSD video, the 102.00 region is key support for the DXY.

That’s where the index bounced last week.

Dollar bulls face a critical test at the 103.50 yearly open, also trend line resistance from last September.

A breakout from that area in the coming weeks would likely send the DXY back to 105.60, potentially to the 109-110 resistance area.

Alternatively, a sustained break below the 102 region would open up the 100.80 year-to-date lows.

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EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD played out perfectly for us last week based on Thursday’s video analysis.

If you saw the video, you know I was watching for a confirmed fakeout below a 4-hour trend line and key horizontal area.

We got the confirmed breakdown and follow-through of over 80 pips.

See the video above for a complete explanation.

The 1.0930-1.0950 area flips to resistance for the week ahead, with key support for EURUSD coming in at 1.0820/30.

I maintain my longer-term bearish outlook for EURUSD.

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD recently broke above a key area at 1.2740.

I’ve written about it and made several videos discussing the breakout, including last week’s GBPUSD video analysis.

However, instead of longing the pound at new support, I’m more interested in shorting the pair on a confirmed fakeout.

If you saw Friday’s video, you know a sustained break below the 1.2720 area is required to confirm the fakeout and expose lower levels.

One such lower level is the October trend line at 1.2550.

GBPUSD may have closed below the key area last week, so I’ll watch for a short opportunity near 1.2770 this week.

I’ll keep the initial position small until we get follow through, and I’ll cut it on a daily close back above 1.2740.

AUDUSD Forecast

AUDUSD is another pair that played out perfectly last week based on Wednesday’s video analysis.

I was watching for a daily close below 0.6785 to confirm the fakeout and short AUDUSD, which we got on Thursday.

Friday’s session followed through with a 94-pip drop.

For the week ahead, I’d expect an early week bounce from AUDUSD, especially given Friday’s close near the point of control.

See the video above for a thorough explanation.

However, considering last week’s fakeout above 0.6785, I favor shorting strength from AUDUSD.

We may get a retest of the 0.6755 lows, but ultimately, the Australian dollar is heading back to the 0.6580 range lows.

USDCAD Forecast

USDCAD is a pair I’ve had my eye on for the last few weeks.

I was originally looking for a bounce from the November trend line at 1.3330, but the idea never materialized, so I didn’t take the long trade.

I made a video last week discussing the significance of the 1.3100 support area.

We saw USDCAD bounce slightly on Friday, but it hasn’t quite entered the demand zone I’m interested in.

I may miss the long if USDCAD doesn’t pull back further this week, but I also want to avoid chasing it.

So I’ll stand aside to see if we get a 1.3100 retest next week.

If so, I like the idea of a USDCAD rally toward the mid-range at 1.3300 and the November trend line.

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