Weekly Forex Forecast For February 12-16, 2024

The Forex market remains mostly sideways, but next week’s US inflation numbers could trigger some much-needed volatility.

Today’s forecast offers insights into key levels and targets for the US Dollar Index (DXY), EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD.

Let’s begin!

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The US dollar traded mostly sideways last week following the retest of 104.45 resistance.

The potential for a pullback into 103.50 to 103.80 exists while below that key resistance level.

Tuesday’s US CPI will be one to watch as markets hold their breath for lower numbers to keep the Fed rate cut narrative on track.

Fundamentals aside, the DXY is range-bound between 103.50 support and 104.50 resistance.

It will take a sustained break above 104.50 to expose 105.00 and 105.80.

Alternatively, a sustained break below 103.50 would be bearish for the dollar and expose 103.00.

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EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD was uneventful last week, but next week’s US CPI could spark the next significant move for the euro.

Key support is 1.0730 to 1.0755, with resistance coming in at 1.0820.

The trend line from the 2022 low also comes in at 1.0820 on the logarithmic chart, so that could be something to watch next week.

A sustained break above 1.0820 would be bullish for the euro with a break below 1.0730 exposing the 1.0650 area.

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD reclaimed 1.2612 after closing below it on the 5th.

It’s unclear if that reclaim is significant, given how sideways the pound was last week following the February 7th close.

The 1.2700 resistance area is one to watch, which could line up with the DXY at 103.50.

Alternatively, a sustained break back below 1.2612 would be bearish toward 1.2500.

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USDCHF Forecast

USDCHF has performed well since the confirmed fakeout above the July lows.

This is an idea I discussed at length in mid-January.

The pair has also broken above the October trend line and secured a weekly close above 0.8690.

As long as USDCHF is above that mark, I like the idea of looking for buys on pullbacks toward 0.8820.

Alternatively, a sustained break below 0.8690 would be bearish for USDCHF.

Gold (XAUUSD) Forecast

Gold may have given traders a breakdown on Friday, but it’s unclear as of now.

Friday’s candle barely closed below the October trend line we’ve been watching, so Monday’s close could be the determining factor.

A sustained break below this trend line opens up $2,000 and potentially $1,975.

But caution is needed as we could still get a run at resistance near $2,060.

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