Will the US dollar continue to decline next week, or have markets reached a key turning point?
Watch today’s Weekly Forex Forecast to see how I’m trading the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and XAUUSD next week.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY just had its worst week since November 2022.
Interestingly, the price action in 2025 looks eerily similar to the September 2022 to January 2023 decline.
While I’m not saying history will repeat itself, it’s a scenario that can’t be ignored.
If that pattern plays out, the DXY could drop toward the 2023 and 2024 lows at 100.00.
Unless dollar bulls can recover from last week’s bloodbath and reclaim key resistance levels, the DXY may be headed even lower this year.
EURUSD Forecast
Since gapping up to start the month, EURUSD has surged nearly 500 pips in just five days.
It’s been an impressive rally, resembling the price action from November 2022.
However, bulls now face major resistance at the late 2022 trend line near 1.0850.
This is the same 1.0850-1.0900 resistance area I highlighted last week, a confluence that won’t be easily broken.
At some point, late longs are likely to get caught on the wrong side.
Traders have been chasing EURUSD higher, but markets don’t move in a straight line—and when they do, it’s a signal to be extra cautious.
Key resistance remains at 1.0850-1.0900, while support comes in at 1.0777.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD has also gained from a weaker US dollar, breaking through key levels like 1.2680 and 1.2800.
The 1.2800 level now serves as key support, with resistance at the 1.3050 November highs.
While I’m not calling for it, a sustained break back below 1.2800 could offer an opportunity toward 1.2680.
Outside of that, GBPUSD bulls remain in control with their sights set on 1.3050.
AUDUSD Forecast
AUDUSD was an excellent short two weeks ago, which then turned into a buy last week.
On Tuesday, I told VIP members in Discord that a daily close above 0.6255 would open the door to 0.6330.
Tuesday’s session reclaimed 0.6255, and 24 hours later, AUDUSD had reached 0.6330.
For now, the pair remains range-bound, with 0.6330 flipping back to resistance next week.
As mentioned last week, the biggest challenge for Australian dollar bulls is the US stock market.
Currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar are more risk-sensitive, so recent weakness in stocks remains a major headwind.
XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast
Gold confirmed a buy-side fakeout on February 25th, signaling a pullback toward levels like $2,882 and $2,830.
XAUUSD broke its 2025 trend line during the decline, which then acted as resistance last Tuesday.
Although gold remains sideways for now, a reclaim of the $2,940 region would suggest bullish intent and open the door to $3,000.
However, a key challenge for XAUUSD bulls is the 2025 trend line resistance just above that mark.
Gold will need to clear both levels on the high time frames to turn fully bullish again.
Until then, traders should expect continued range-bound action between $2,882 support and $2,940 resistance.
