Weekly Forex Forecast For April 8 – 12, 2024

·    April 8, 2024

·      April 8, 2024

·    April 8, 2024

The mixed signals from the Forex market continued last week, but the wicks from Thursday and Friday offer clues for the week ahead.

In today’s Weekly Forex Forecast, I discuss what we should expect from the US Dollar Index (DXY), EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and EURGBP in the week ahead.

Let’s begin!

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US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY faltered last week after testing 105.00 resistance, closing back below the 104.45 handle on Wednesday.

That posed a problem for dollar bulls on Friday, despite US jobs numbers beating consensus.

For the week ahead, expect more range-bound price action from the DXY while below 104.45.

A retracement into Thursday’s lower wick seems likely, with critical support coming in at 103.60-103.80.

A sustained break above 104.45 would be bullish toward 105.00 and 106.00.

DXY 2024 04 08 09 53 15
Weekly Forex Forecast For April 8 - 12, 2024 6

EURUSD Forecast

Like the DXY, the euro remains sideways after sellers failed to keep the euro below 1.0800.

With two long daily wicks between Thursday and Friday, the week ahead will likely involve a lot of ranging to “sweep” the buy and sell-side imbalances.

What we don’t know is which direction EURUSD will move first.

If the euro rallies early this week, traders can watch for selling opportunities near 1.0865 for a return to Friday’s lower wick.

Alternatively, a selloff early this week to “fill” Friday’s lower wick would likely trigger a bounce toward 1.0865 later in the week.

Bottom line, I’ll anticipate more ranging price action from EURUSD as long as the sideways action holds.

EURUSD 2024 04 08 09 54 21
Weekly Forex Forecast For April 8 - 12, 2024 7

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD technicals have broken down in recent days, making the pair less tradeable than it was at the end of March.

We had previously been watching the failed (bullish) breakout following the March 22nd close, but that idea broke down with last week’s rally.

If GBPUSD can hold above 1.2620 on a daily closing basis this week, we could see further upside to target the March 21st imbalance.

But like EURUSD, I would be careful expecting too much from the pound, given the indecision so far this year.

GBPUSD 2024 04 08 09 55 54
Weekly Forex Forecast For April 8 - 12, 2024 8

USDJPY Forecast

USDJPY is knocking on the door of a significant bullish breakout.

I’ve discussed the importance of the 152.00 resistance, along with the ascending triangle that’s formed since the 2023 lows.

However, to turn bullish, USDJPY needs to secure a sustained break above the 152.00 handle.

That would expose levels like 155.60.

With that said, traders should be cautious while USDJPY trades below 152.00, as we could see another sell-side liquidity sweep similar to early March.

USDJPY 2024 04 08 09 56 56
Weekly Forex Forecast For April 8 - 12, 2024 9

EURGBP Forecast

EURGBP isn’t a currency pair I trade or even talk about often, but recent price action is suggesting a possible upswing from current levels.

The recent double bottom looks similar to the action in July and August last year before a significant rally took hold.

Furthermore, we have a trend line from November that could offer a relatively stress-free way to trade a EURGBP breakout.

To be clear, though, a move back to the 0.8750 range highs could take months.

With that in mind, taking profit along the way is the best approach, in my opinion.

EURGBP 2024 04 08 10 06 26
Weekly Forex Forecast For April 8 - 12, 2024 10

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