Today’s weekly forex forecast covers the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced from macro support last week and is attempting a bullish reclaim while pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD look closer to a correction.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have pairs like USDJPY and USDCAD that are looking more bullish and attempting reclaims of their own.
Watch the video and scroll down to view the charts to prepare for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The dollar index bounced this week from the 101.00 macro support I’ve discussed recently.
However, bulls still have work to do.
The first hurdle is 102.05, which served as support in late March and was attract sellers on Friday.
A sustained break above 102.05 opens the door to the 102.60 monthly open with a break above that taking on the 103.50 yearly open.
So there’s still a lot of work to be done, but I’m cautiously bullish on the DXY while above the 101.00 macro support.
I wrote about EURUSD on Friday, noting how a higher time frame close below 1.0900 would confirm last week’s bearish fakeout.
That said, I’m always hesitant about Friday price action, especially when it’s also a holiday.
I have a small short position from 1.0936 last week, an entry I shared with members in the Discord trading group.
However, I’m waiting for a daily close below 1.0900 before I add size to the position.
A daily close below 1.0900 exposes the 1.0750 confluence of support, while a daily close above 1.0930 would negate the bearish outlook and expose 1.0973.
GBPUSD confirmed a bearish fakeout last week above the 1.2450 range highs.
This is technically an area between 1.2427 and 1.2450, and Friday closed below both.
Even Thursday’s session failed to hold above 1.2450, which is one reason I think we could see a higher dollar in the coming days.
If we see follow-through from GBPUSD bears this week, a move to 1.2290 and even the 1.2200 mid-range could be in the cards.
Alternatively, a daily close back above 1.2450 would negate the bearish outlook.
I mentioned to Daily Price Action members last week that I favored the long side of USDJPY when it was trading at 130.93.
That was due to the ascending channel from earlier this year and the significance of 130.70.
The USDJPY price action since late March looks very similar to what we saw in January and early February.
However, USDJPY bulls have work to do at 132.90 this week.
That’s where we saw the pair falter earlier this month, so a daily close above is imperative to open up levels like 134.40.
I’m cautiously bullish USDJPY while above 130.70, but a daily reclaim of 132.90 would turn me more aggressively bullish.
In February, I discussed the USDCAD October trend line a few times, noting that a bullish break from the level would expose higher levels.
We got the breakout on February 22nd, triggering a 300-pip rally from USDCAD.
Last week, we got a rounded retest of the October trend line at 1.3420.
I mentioned this as a potential long in the member’s Discord group when USDCAD was trading at 1.3420, which turned out to be a decent trade.
Whether we see additional upside depends on the 1.3516 monthly open.
A sustained break above opens up levels like 1.3650, while a rotation lower this week would likely find a bid at 1.3470.