The USDJPY long-term chart hints at a potential 2,700-pip move in the coming months, and today’s episode of The Daily Edge has the answers.
We’ll discuss key levels to watch next week and the incredible long-term potential for USDJPY.
Plus, get the latest on the Japanese Yen Index and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Let’s get started!
The yen has remained weak since the start of the year, which, combined with the US dollar’s strength, has pushed USDJPY 800 pips higher in 2024.
It’s been an incredible rally, and the higher time frame charts suggest it isn’t over.
First, the daily chart is holding above 148.35, so a weekly close above that mark keeps pressure on 149.70.
Above that, we have the multi-year resistance at 152.00.
If USDJPY can reclaim 149.70 next week, all eyes will be on the 152.00 macro resistance area.
But the longer-term charts are starting to point to a much more significant rally for USDJPY.
Specifically, an early-stage ascending channel has developed since early 2022.
The base of the pattern is debatable, but given the lack of a significant swing high in 2020 or 2021, it’s better to use the early 2023 low to determine an objective.
Using that low, we get a height, or measured move, of approximately 2,500 pips.
If we measure 2,500 pips above the 152.00 mark, we get a measured objective of 177.00.
What’s fascinating is that 177.00 is the 1978 low, specifically 177.05.
Even more compelling is that the 1978 low at 177.05 was never tested as new resistance following the breakdown in the 1970s.
Could this indicate that USDJPY will embark on a 2,700-pip rally from current levels?
Perhaps, but we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves.
The first step in confirming such a rally is a sustained break above 152.00 on the weekly and monthly charts, which is no small task.
Keep in mind, too, that even if a 2,700 pip rally is coming, it will take months or even years to play out.
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