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USDJPY Reversal Starts With a Bang

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On December 17th I wrote how the clues pointed to a USDJPY break lower, not higher.

That turned out to be the understatement of 2018.

At the time, USDJPY was still trading within the wedge pattern I first pointed out on December 2nd.

But by the 18th, sellers had cleared wedge support at 112.60.

That set up a short opportunity. And the next 48 hours played out perfectly for sellers.

Notice how USDJPY retested former wedge support as new resistance on the 18th. That high of 112.66 offered a prime opportunity to sell the pair.

Thursday’s 180-pip selloff was unexpected but not surprising.

We know how the yen can react to risk aversion, and the S&P 500 had already signaled a key breakdown of its own.

Yesterday’s low for the USDJPY was 110.80. You may recall that the key level below 111.70 was 110.70. I’ve talked about both levels for several weeks now.

Remember that these levels are often areas or zones. As such, yesterday’s bounce from 110.80 confirms that support for the pair lies somewhere between 110.70 and 110.80.

So where to from here?

Yesterday’s 111.28 close means that any retest of the 111.70 area should attract sellers.

You can even see where 111.70 played a role on Thursday if you drill down to the 1-hour time frame.

USDJPY is still a sell in my opinion. 

However, we could see near-term strength given the aggressiveness of yesterday’s decline.

I’m also still targeting 108.00 which I discussed on December 11th.

If USDJPY fails to retest 111.70 as new resistance, the alternative is to wait for a daily close below the 110.70/80 support area.

That would expose 109.80 followed by my longer-term target at 108.00.

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USDJPY wedge pattern on the daily time frame

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21 comments
fatima baksh khan says

I enjoy your analysis

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hank says

Very Good!!!

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Anita says

Wow Justin my first pair I traded on my demo came from you recommended CJ that was sell went extremely well I am raising money to join. Keep it up graet staff.

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Abdus Salam says

.thanks. How many time to reached 108 level usd jpy? GBP USD forecast need in this moment

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Oladimeji says

Back to back analysis was a bumper thanks boss we hail you…

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Girdss says

A short term revival in the USDJPY as I Write this —It looks likr it still will go down ,but if not will hold for a while.

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Victor Ojo says

Awesome Bennett. You are worth following. Will surely be part of your member area soon

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Kevin says

Also EurJpy has played perfectly well according to your analysis.

Thanks Justin

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Isiyaku Ibrahim says

Thanks Justin

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patience says

thanks a lot. Your analysis is so clear, simple, easy to understand and most importantly void of unnecessary technical jargon

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Abdulraheem says

I really appreciate your technical analysis it is so clear, simple, easy to understand and most importantly void of unnecessary technical gibbresih.

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Sumantra kumar halder says

Excellent analysis

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Aziz says

very good

thank you.

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Magaji Shehu says

I enjoyed your forcast very pantastic you are my mentor for trading

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nilbert says

I hope I could able to recover my loses thru this. Thank you very much sir..

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Joshua Udoh says

Nice job Sir….

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Isaac Mbithi says

Well noted

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Afeda says

This is just too raw sir. Too clear to be misunderstood. too simple to be confused. Thanks sir.

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Abdus Salam says

Thanks sir for your highly provide concept USDJP. Already i have cleared about this. Now need forecast about USD CSD. Hope you will provide study this pairs at next week.

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Paul says

I absolutely think the JPY will get stronger and stronger against any other currency. Specially when I look to EURJPY, such a nice graph on daily, weekly and even monthly timeframe. I think EUR and many other currencies will fall against the JPY.

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Kevin Wagner says

Nice work. The 110.80 is the 38 Fib. and the 50 Fib is just south of next target. Looks good if we break the 38.

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