Will the USDJPY weaken further? Or is the risk-off trade over?
Watch the video below to get my thoughts.
Be sure to also scroll down for more commentary and an annotated chart.
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The USDJPY is testing a key resistance area today.
I wrote about this 109.20/30 area on January 23rd.
In that commentary, I mentioned how a close below that region would suggest weakness.
Last Monday’s gap down gave us just that.
That’s when the January 24th close at 109.27 became our primary focus.
I wrote about how this level was likely to attract sellers on January 28th.
Hours later, the USDJPY reached a high of 109.26 before losing nearly 100 pips over the next three sessions.
However, the yen’s safe-haven status means the value of the currency is closely tied to risk assets like stocks.
And getting stocks to move lower is no easy task.
As you can see, the USDJPY has nearly clawed back everything it lost last week.
Given what I just mentioned about the yen’s relationship to stocks, it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 back to last week’s highs too.
But in the end, it always comes back to price action.
The USDJPY is hovering below that 109.20/30 resistance area, which means it’s still intact as resistance and attracting sellers.
Only a daily close above 109.30 would change that.
The “daily close” refers to the 5 pm EST close when using New York close charts, which are essential for trading price action the way I do.
Get access to the same Forex charts I use.
Such a close would target 109.70 and perhaps 110.20.
Alternatively, if the USDJPY remains below 109.20/30, we could see another run at recent lows at 108.30, which intersects with ascending channel support.
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Hi Justin. Do you offer signals?
Great Forcast Justin and very realistic it syncs with my analysis too. The video you sent to me on trendlines has been very helpful in digging out my forecasts too.
Thanks for the update sir justin.
Thanks for the updates please.
thanks justin,i always like the way you trade .
Hi Bro… daily candle close is so important… but the more important thing is the way entering the market with defined risk …. I would love if you make vedio showing your way in entering… and if there is a group like slack or telegram where traders can discuss with each other …. thank you takecare
Please sir Justin provide answer to this question as I am also a follower of your daily analysis, and I have not seen you make a video or blog post on when to enter market to ensure good risk management.
Please sir, may God reward you abundantly
And always add when to enter
trade on your weekly video and blog post
Hi, good point from Adam’s side. I follow this webpage and what I’m missing is some insight into real Risk Management. You inform here when you entered or when took profit. How about taking losses? I counted 3 recent trades Eur/Nzd, gbp/aud and now USD/jpy which were potentially failed. Do you share in membership area Enter/stop loss/take profit strategy of real trades? I’m writing that comment to improve the page, however it’s great No matter what.
I do sometimes share my entry and plan, but it isn’t a signal service.