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USDCAD: Which Dollar Will Prevail?

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The USDCAD is at a crossroads. Just the other day we discussed the trend line support that extends from the current 2017 low. That level intersects with the 1.2770 horizontal level near current prices.

Yesterday’s session attempted to close back above the 1.2770 handle. However, buyers fell short of their goal and are once again struggling today.

This puts the USDCAD in a delicate position. If the pair can’t manage a daily close (5 pm EST) back above the 1.2770/5 area, the only option is a move below trend line support near 1.2720. If that occurs, we could see prices slide toward 1.2590 and perhaps 1.2420.

On the other hand, if buyers manage a daily close above 1.2770 it would put us right back to targeting 1.2915 followed by 1.3000.

It’s no secret the U.S. dollar has struggled lately. That said, the Canadian dollar has performed even worse. The stalemate between the two is the reason for the terminal pattern below.

In times like this, it’s important not to draw any conclusions until we have some form of confirmation. In the case of the USDCAD, that means a daily close below trend line support near 1.2720 or above horizontal resistance at 1.2770/5.

Until that occurs, the likely path forward is unclear. Although as you can see, the limited real estate will force participants one way or the other within the next few sessions.

A word of caution, though. Recent market conditions have proven difficult, both in reading the price action as well as garnering follow through. With this in mind, it may be a good time to reduce position sizes or scale into positions so as to mitigate potential losses.

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USDCAD intersection of trend line support and horizontal resistance

Leave a Comment:

21 comments
TJ says

Thank you for the update sir!

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Farai says

Thanks for the analysis

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Farai.

    Reply
Oladunni Tolu David says

yeah, about the market being unpredictable, i thought, i was the one doing things wrong

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    Justin Bennett says

    There’s certainly been a lot more indecision and chop than usual.

    Reply
alphonsus chukwu says

thanks for the update

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Sydwell says

Too many opportunities brings challenges,the market has been showing me flames as well,thanks for clearing that out Jb,I also tink it would be best take take A+ only,what a setback

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Sydwell. Cheers.

    Reply
Steven says

Thanks again my mentor for the update.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Steven.

    Reply
SLW says

“Recent market conditions have proven difficult…”
Thank you for affirming that the choice to slow my trading frequency over the last month or so was possibly an instinctive notice of this trend rather than a loss of confidence. I’d booked rather significant profits from september-october and had recently struggled with finding new trade opportunities enticing enough to warrant new risk. I had assumed it was plain fear, but now I’m left to wonder “Am I finally starting to get this right?”

Thanks again for all that you do.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    If you’ve been more patient lately due to a lack of ‘A+’ setups, I’d say you’re on the right track. I’ve scaled back on my frequency and position sizing.

    Reply
Yousef says

Thank you so much, this is a big effort to explain

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome, Yousef.

    Reply
Howard says

Thank you Justin for helping us to always keep the big picture (daily time frame) in mind.

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    Justin Bennett says

    Absolutely, Howard. It’s my pleasure.

    Reply
Robot1966 says

I went long at 1.26750. I thought it would go up to the 1.29 level. But when I saw it struggling at 1.2770 level, I closed the trade at 1.2730. The current action is choppy. Best to stay out.

Good Luck Guys.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I agree. The market is just consolidating for now, so it’s best to stay on the sideline until we get a clear signal.

    Reply
Lesley says

Hi Justin. I don’t like it when on consolidation because one never knows which side the chart will go. I prefer to stay on the sideline until I get confirmation where it’s heading. Thanks for validating my feelings. I’m getting better by day from your lessons

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