USDCAD Breaks Consolidation Intraday, Targets 1.3385

by Justin Bennett  · 

September 4, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

September 4, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

September 4, 2018

Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

It didn’t take long for USDCAD bulls to make good on last week’s commentary. On Friday, I pointed out a possible bull flag pattern and also reminded readers about it in Sunday’s weekly forecast.

Yesterday’s session retested channel resistance for the second time since its inception in July. However, buyers weren’t quite ready to make their move.

Fast forward to today, and we can see that the pair is trading 100 pips above the level near 1.3100. That’s the area I mentioned on Friday and again on Sunday.

So far today’s session has only confirmed the pattern on an intraday basis. We’ve had several 4-hour closes above it which certainly inspires confidence if you’re interested in trading this pattern.

However, if you use end-of-day charts, the USDCAD bull flag won’t be confirmed until the pair clears 1.3100 on a daily closing basis (New York 5 pm EST).

At the moment, I see no reason to suspect that won’t happen. But if you’ve traded Forex for a while, you know as well as I do that anything can happen, so waiting for confirmation would be prudent.

If today’s session closes anywhere near current levels at 1.3200, I’d be surprised to see a full retest of former resistance as new support at 1.3100. Instead, we could begin to look at other areas such as the August highs at 1.3170.

I started nibbling yesterday before the breakout occurred. If you’re wondering how or why I did it, see this post. I’ll be interested in adding to it so long as buyers close today’s session above the 1.3100 area. My target is the measured objective at 1.3750.

As I mentioned last week, I’ll also be keeping an eye on key resistance at 1.3385 and 1.3585. Those levels can also serve as prime areas to add to a long position provided USDCAD bulls can clear them on a daily closing basis.

Most importantly, you don’t want to chase a volatile pair like the USDCAD. Wait for the market to settle into its new price before you go looking for an entry.

The last three 800+ pip moves since the 2017 low have taken anywhere from 33 to 48 trading days, so chances are there will be plenty of opportunities along the way.

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USDCAD bull flag on daily chart

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  1. Mentor, i want to use this opportunity. To thank you, My name is onyeisi,from Nigeria, i read one of your lessons on pin bars entry and exist. I tried it on XAUUSD daily time frame. I was able to catch a solid 100 pips. Though, i still struggle, with holding trade till TP, but i was able to hold it till Tp. So, thank you. God bless you.

  2. Do you share all your entries with your member? Or its more of sharing analysis and its up to individual decision to take it or not!

  3. Sir you said that you started nibbling ucad since yesterday If I get you right meaning you have entered buying since yesterday was this advertised in the members area? The reason for this question is that since I have read your write up on it since Sunday I have seeing watching the pair and waiting for a retest but it’s really pained me for missing the move now. Thanks for the analysis

    1. As mentioned above, if this is the start of the next 800+ pip rally, it could last for weeks. With that in mind, I don’t see how you’ve “missed the move” as you say.

    1. You should always have a plan before you enter. That way you’re never caught off guard. And waiting/hoping to get out at breakeven is the number one reason traders blow accounts.

  4. Hi Justin, I think I had the same vision as you. As you commented on the possible bullish trend and also specified as long as it had a daily close above 1.3090 it could be bought and so it was … 99 pips

  5. Hello Justin,
    I am Kev from the Manchester UK. Words are not enough for me to say thank you Justin. after attending your webinar, my approach to trading changed. My eyes was opened to a lot of things that I was blinded to though my two naked eyes were opened. Now I stay in a trade longer than I used to. Entry and Exit is now a piece of cake.

    Justin, you are indeed a GENERAL in the world of FOREX

  6. At this moment I bounce on that support around 1.3170 and it is 1.3182. Very accurate your analysis, congratulations

  7. Brilliant and in depth analysis of the market projection.You are doing so well in imparting your knowledge of the market to newbies like me.I really want to appreciate your efforts Mr Bennett. Thanks.

    1. I’m not sure why you’d assume you missed it. If it is indeed the next leg up, it will likely take weeks if not months to play out.

    2. If you want to enter this up move, you could wait for retracement to retest 1.3100 zone, It could happen tomorrow (6.9), this is nearest logical place. You could as well wait for retesting once more Daily up channel. As Justin said, this can take weeks to play out and can reach many interesting zones for entering.

  8. Hi Justin, yesterday breakout above 1.3100 was wonderful.. was able to get 80 pips on the long Trade. The challenge was to close the position when it all looked like a one way street up. Thanks for such pointers.. it surely makes Forex investing interesting. Regards.

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