USDCAD has been range-bound since December, but the charts are now hinting at an imminent breakout.
In today’s video, I’ll break down all the details of my USDCAD trade, plus an updated outlook for US oil (WTI) and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
USDCAD has been at the top of my watchlist for months, and for good reason.
It all started with the weekly breakout of a two-year range in late October.
That breakout above 1.3870 set the stage for a rally to 1.4265 and eventually 1.4670.
While USDCAD reached the first target in December, the second target at 1.4670 remains just out of reach.
Lately, indecision has dominated, thanks to the tug-of-war between a strong US dollar and rising oil prices.
The strong USD is bullish for USDCAD, but oil’s rally has kept the Canadian dollar well supported since December.
This has left USDCAD stuck in a 100-pip range between 1.4350 and 1.4450.
However, a breakout could be brewing in the coming days.
Last week’s sweep of the 1.4350 lows and subsequent reclaim left USDCAD looking relatively bullish.
We discussed that liquidity sweep in the VIP Discord group ahead of time, so members were prepared.
Today, I reloaded my USDCAD long during the pullback, which I also shared in real-time with VIP members.
I’ve been trading around a core position since last week, taking profits a couple of times already.
As of now, I remain bullish on USDCAD, with targets at 1.4450 and the decade-long range highs near 1.4670.
That said, a sustained break below 1.4265 on the higher time frames would negate the bullish bias.