NZDUSD Shorts Favored Below 0.7315

·    March 12, 2018

·      March 12, 2018

·    March 12, 2018

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A couple of weeks ago on February 25, I commented on an NZDUSD trend line that could trigger additional losses. The level extends from the December 5, 2017 low and came under pressure between February 23 and 26 before breaking down on the 27th.

Immediately after breaking trend line support the pair dropped 100 pips before finding support in the 0.7185 area. The upward consolidation over the last eight trading days has produced another retest of resistance at 0.7315.

If you review the weekly commentary from February 25, you’ll note that 0.7315 was a level of interest. It also capped the February 26 rally on a daily closing basis.

With the NZDUSD retesting this key resistance level, it’s time to evaluate whether or not a favorable short opportunity exists. In my opinion, if you secured a short entry at or near 0.7315, it’s one that could be worth holding.

For the rest, it’s going to come down to today’s close. If the pair forms a bearish pin bar following today’s retest of 0.7315, that too could present an opportunity to get short.

Key support comes in at 0.7185. A daily close (using a New York close chart) below 0.7185 would expose the 0.7050 area followed by 0.6960.

Alternatively, a daily close above 0.7315 would turn our attention to former trend line support, which would now serve as resistance.

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NZDUSD key support and resistance levels

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  1. Trendline sometimes breaks (False breakout). Still, it acts as strong evidence. If we connect Jan’24 & Jan’31 candle high we will get a nice trendline which is being respected by price right now. Some may get this as a clutter, but I see significant trendlines often die, they live with power!

  2. hi Justin, this pin bar and its resistance level were not a problem for buyers plans ot at least it seems so. My question: when is the exact moment in which the pin bar fails in a case like this one? I had my first doubts when I saw the price going over the half body of the pin bar. Could you wait more than that or in any specific time there is a different level to observe?

    1. Well, the first step is to make sure you’re trading only A+ signals. This wasn’t one in my opinion. The lower wick was too long, and the range was on the small side.

      I never opened a position here for those reasons, but also because I have my sights set elsewhere.

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