Daily Price Action
Shares

NZDUSD Carves Fresh 2017 Low; Trades Below Key Support

Shares

The NZDUSD has been one of the better performing currency pairs of late. One currency pair that might challenge that title is the USDJPY.

The last time we looked at the New Zealand dollar, buyers had just reached the confluence of resistance at 0.6985. It’s the intersection of three levels.

First is the trend line I mentioned in October. It extends from the September 2015 low and helped attract offers on the 23rd and 24th of October.

Next is the horizontal level at 0.6985. While it isn’t as apparent from recent price action, a look at the weekly chart shows how it served as a pivot between April and July of last year. It’s also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2015 low to the 2017 high.

Last but not least is the descending channel that spanned the July 27 high at 0.7558 to the October 19 low at 0.7009. It’s more obscure than the other two levels but just as important. The channel floor was broken on October 20 session and should now attract sellers.

The high just before I released that November 9 commentary would be the last for buyers. Since carving a session high of 0.6980, the pair has lost 180 pips and also reached our first target at 0.6820.

That area not only attracted bids in late October, but it also served as support in May. We have to go back to June of last year to find the last time the NZDUSD was trading below the 0.6820 handle.

You may recall from the most recent weekly forecast that a daily close below 0.6820 would open up support at 0.6675. That’s precisely where we are today.

If sellers manage a daily close below 0.6820, I will begin watching for a retest of the area as new resistance. The 145 pips of real estate between 0.6820 and 0.6675 make this one worth keeping an eye on as we move into next week.

As long as 0.6820 holds as resistance (provided we get a close below it), I will remain bearish the NZDUSD.

Want to Be Mentored by Justin? Get Access Inside the Free Webinar

NZDUSD breaking key support on daily chart

Leave a Comment:

17 comments
Tims says

Thanks Justin, i’ve been following your analysis on this pair and i have made some profits off it.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    That’s great to hear. Thanks for sharing.

    Reply
Tijani says

Justin well done .

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers, Tijani.

    Reply
Darius says

nice comments improvements. I would suggest adding time when was comment written. That would be useful , like when commentator forecasts that something will happen, you can know when he did this

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I’ll look into it. Thanks.

    Reply
Sal says

Excellent and very informed analysis as always. I have been following this site for quite some time now and I must say, the knowledge shared here is invaluable.

Justin, I have a question however, since I am basically a losing trader for just over 1 year now(my win rate is about 30% – for a 40 pip target with SL @ 20 pips), would you care to share your win rate and pip target for an average day/week?

I use the daily support and resistance zones to try to trade the 1H and 4H charts in conjunction with news and a pinbar or engulfing candle but
I feel as though I am just gambling now…Can you offer some guidance? Am I missing something? Or is trading just a game of putting the odds in your favor without really knowing the outcome.

Thanks
Sal

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Hi Sal, you will never know the outcome. Trading is a game of probabilities rather than certainties.

    As for win rate and pips per week, I could care less about both. What’s important to me is staying patient, keeping my risk low, making sure I have a favorable risk/reward ratio, etc.

    Trying to achieve a certain number of pips each week can easily lead to overtrading. The market isn’t on your schedule. You have to take what it gives you even if that means just one trade a week.

    Reply
Steven says

Thanks Justin i will keep an eye on this pair next week. I’v been following you for a month now i trust your analysis and i am learning a lot.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Steven. I’m pleased to hear that.

    Reply
Maddy says

Hii…justin….i am following you jus from the past two weeks….iam a newbie trader…i used to concentrate only on the major pairs…..but because of you…iam able shift my focus to other pairs as well which are technically easy to trade….thank you so much…

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Hi Maddy, I love hearing that. Let me know if you have any questions. Cheers.

    Reply
Hasan says

Good analysis. I dont think it will hit 0.66456. My view for the kiwi is 0.70 – 0.65 – 0.63 for another quarter. Kiwi came down from mid September high of 0.74 to now 0.68. It lost 600 pips down without any significant retracement. This is huge downward cycle for kiwi, most of it related to the election.
I think it will retest 0.70450 before it goes to 0.65 and makes a range.

Maybe you’re right and i’m not. It’s just another view.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks for sharing.

    Reply
Gede says

Justin, your analysis is very nice,
btw can you give comment for USDCNH as i see the last candle on daily chart was rejected on trend line that build on September 7 and Nov 13.
in my opinion that the price ready to going down.
can you comment on your analysis?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Pleased to hear that. Sorry, but I don’t take requests for commentary.

    Reply
ismo says

Your post has turned me to a consistent profit maker.I win most of the time with your analysis. Patience and trading small lot size. Am now at 350% profit value.

Reply
Add Your Reply