Daily Price Action
Shares

Weekly Forex Forecast (November 20 – 24, 2017)

Shares

Despite boasting some of the best technical levels, the EURUSD was a tough one to trade last week.

The October 26 close below the 1.1670 handle was a significant development. Not only did it break the key support level, but it also confirmed what appeared to be a head and shoulders reversal.

However, Euro bulls had other plans. The November 14 rally took out stops above the 1.1670 area and went on to close the day 125 pips above the key level.

That too was a significant development. It signaled that sellers no longer had control, which had been the case since the September 8 bearish pin bar from 1.2040.

From here it’s anyone’s guess. I’m not ready to say that the EURUSD is back in rally mode nor am I bearish like I was at the start of last week. What I do know is that the 1.1670 area will likely attract bids if tested over the coming sessions.

Similarly, key resistance at 1.1875 will likely continue to attract sellers as it did during Wednesday’s session.

Some asked me whether or not the November 15 bearish pin bar is significant. I think it is but only as far as new support in the 1.1670/90 area. And because the region is just 100 pips below the current price, there is no setup in my opinion.

Furthermore, I tend to ignore candlestick patterns that fly in the face of large opposing candles as was the case between Tuesday and Wednesday.

I’m going to stay on the sideline until market participants decide on a direction for the single currency. Key support comes in at 1.1670/90 while resistance can be found at 1.1875.

Get Free Forex Trade Setups Delivered To Your Inbox! Click Here To Get Alerts

EURUSD support and resistance on daily chart

GBPUSD bulls held onto ascending channel support once again last week. It’s a level that extends from the March low and will be instrumental in determining the path forward for the pound sterling.

To the upside we have a familiar resistance level. The 1.3290 area has held buyers in check since October 3. We’ve had intraday spikes above the level, but the pair has yet to manage a daily close above it since late September.

So we’re back to watching and waiting for the GBPUSD to make its move. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the terminal pattern that has formed as a result of trend line resistance and channel support will be the deciding factor going forward.

Those two levels intersect at some point in December. So, sometime between now and then, the pair has a big decision to make. Either break above the 2014 trend line or below ascending channel support from the March low.

Either way, the outcome could offer one of the best opportunities of 2017. In fact, a breakout from the terminal pattern will likely have repercussions that extend well into 2018.

In the short-term, however, the GBPUSD is range bound between 1.3130/50 support and 1.3290 resistance. We can use these areas to watch for price action signals until the pair reaches the termination point.

GBPUSD ascending channel on the daily chart

On Wednesday of last week, I mentioned how the USDJPY was breaking below the 113.15 handle. It’s a level we’ve had on our radar for weeks and one that would indicate a turn lower if broken.

At the time, prices had plunged below 113.15, but the pair hadn’t yet closed the day below the level. However, just a few hours after Wednesday’s commentary, sellers secured a 112.85 close.

That set up a short opportunity on a retest of the 113.15 area as new resistance. For the price action trader, it was one of those ‘bread and butter’ types of setups.

A support turned resistance (or vice versa) level like this is one of the purest forms of trading price action. But make no mistake. It’s also one of the most lucrative ways to make money and in a relatively short period of time.

Those who went short could have placed their stop loss above the November 15 candle. With a 111.60 target, that’s a 3.8R setup. I should note, however, that the pair hasn’t hit the 111.60 objective just yet, though it does appear to be within reach this week.

Of course, a daily close below the 111.60 area would expose the next key support at 110.20. Alternatively, a bounce higher from 111.60 would likely encounter selling pressure near 113.15.

Want to Be Mentored by Justin? Get Access Inside the Free Webinar

USDJPY range on the daily chart

We looked at the NZDUSD on Friday as the pair was trading below the key 0.6820 handle. It’s a level that dates back to May of this year and also provided some support in late October.

I know some of you went short on the November 9 retest of the confluence of resistance at 0.6980. It’s the intersection of three different levels as shown in the chart below.

If you’re still holding short, Friday’s close below the 0.6820 handle could offer an opportunity to add to the position. For others, it could provide a chance to get in for a move toward the next support at 0.6675.

However, keep in mind that the current price is getting a bit overextended as of Friday’s close. As such, I anticipate some consolidation below 0.6820 before prices continue south.

As long as 0.6820 holds as resistance on a daily closing basis, I’ll remain bearish the NZDUSD. Key support comes in at the May 2016 low at 0.6675.

NZDUSD new resistance area

The EURJPY is still on my watch list. We’ve been tracking the range between 131.80 and 134.40 for weeks now as buyers and sellers refuse to surrender.

As long as the 134.40 handle holds as resistance on a daily closing basis, I maintain the idea that a double top formed between September and October.

However, without a daily close below 131.80, we can’t technically call it a double top. That said, the constant pressure on support and the recent USDJPY breakdown does suggest a lower EURJPY over the coming sessions.

I’m going to hold off on considering an entry until we get that daily close (5 pm EST) below 131.80. If sellers can pull that off, there isn’t much to stop the pair from retesting the 129.30 area.

Alternatively, a daily close above the range top at 134.40 would expose the next resistance at 136.80.

Get Free Forex Trade Setups Delivered To Your Inbox! Click Here To Get Alerts

EURJPY potential double top on the daily chart

Leave a Comment:

55 comments
Divyesh says

What about EURGBP forecast ?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I’ll comment on it during the week if I see something worthwhile.

    Reply
      nicholas says

      Justin, You are making my understanding grow day by day. I would love to continue receiving these updates as I am a new guy in trade and wants much more insight.

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        I love hearing that. Thanks for sharing.

        Reply
      Divyesh says

      Thanks…sir

      Reply
Syed says

Thank you Sir

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
YH says

Could you please share about cryptocurrencies too?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Not at the moment, no.

    Reply
Michael says

Hats off Justin! You re the man. Shalom

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers, Michael. Have a good week.

    Reply
Fabrizio Poli says

Hi Justin my compliments. A small question: I don’t understand the difference between an ascending channel and a rising wedge. Both are terminal patterns and interesting if support is broken! Can you explain? Thank you a lot and cheers

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Fabrizio, channels aren’t terminal patterns. Theoretically, a channel could go on forever. A wedge, on the other hand, must come to an end and is therefore considered a terminal structure.

    Reply
Sam says

My Sundays are not complete without the weekly forecast. Thank you Justin

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Hi Sam, that’s great to hear. I appreciate the feedback. Cheers.

    Reply
Joshua Ogola says

Thanks a lot Justin. My trading has tremendously improved since I started following you. Thanks for the mentorship.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Joshua. Pleased to hear that your trading is improving.

    Reply
View says

Thank you for the analysis

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome.

    Reply
Tims says

Loving the new updated web page. And thanks for the weekly analysis.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Pleased to hear that. Thanks for the feedback.

    Reply
Ferdinand Abia says

It may be easier if you just write out the entry point for each trade.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks for the feedback, but most of the ideas I publish don’t have ‘entry points’ just yet. Also, it sounds like you’re referring to a signal service, which is something I will never do. That would be a disservice to each and every one of you. Thanks again.

    Reply
Roy says

Do you think this is the week the eurjpy will break support?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    We’ll have to wait and see.

    Reply
Howard Hill says

Thank you Justin.
Please also review AUDUSD & AUDJPY. I think there is good short potential there.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. I don’t take requests for setups. I’ll comment on those and others if something catches my eye.

    Reply
Malose says

Thanks as always Justin for the weekly forecast, much appreciated sir.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Malose.

    Reply
bernard says

THANX JUSTIN IM LERNING BIG MOVES THIS DAYS.GOD BLESS YOU

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Darius says

“In the short-term, however, the GBPUSD is range bound between 1.3130/50 support and 1.3290 resistance. We can use these areas to watch for price action signals until the pair reaches the termination point.”

By saying watch for price action signals – do you mean we it is tradable in that range? Or we watch signals but still wait for break from ascending or descending trendline?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    That’s up to you. Depends on what your rules say.

    Reply
Darius says

Yea, USDJPY was good, thanks, really quick money. I am again negative on demo and this plus OILWTI had moved my demo balance almost to breakeven. Maybe oil rised becuasd usd falled. I now have placed SL for USDJPY at 112.095 to protect my quick made profit in case things go bad. One negative thing is that it might hit SL and quickly move down again. But even if it hits, I will have made a lot. Now with current SL and current price I have 2.53 risk reward.

Reply
Kumar says

Thanks Justin. Your weekly review and analysis is very useful. Helps me understand and set up my trade.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Perfect. Thanks for sharing, Kumar.

    Reply
Muzi says

Thanks Justin 🙏🏼

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Muzi.

    Reply
Kwazi says

Thanks a lot Justin my trading has really improved.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Awesome. Glad to hear that.

    Reply
      Ifiok Rex says

      Let’s talk on WhatsApp.. I wan to do business with you. +2347069584385

      Reply
Steve says

Thanks for sharing. Much appreciated Sir

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Steve. Have a good one.

    Reply
Nam says

Thank you very much Bennett.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Rosty says

Thank a mill !!!

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    My pleasure.

    Reply
Robot 1966 says

He

Reply
Robot 1966 says

I am based in Melbourne, Australia. I still take the view that EURO/USD is bearish unless the daily price closes above 1.1880. As I posting this comment, Euro has fallen to about 1.1720. I went short at 1.1820. Hope to take half the profit at 1.17 and moving the balance half to break even price.

As for NZD/USD, I went short at 0.6960. Took half profit at 0.6860. The balance half I took profit when price retraced up to 0.6910. The NZD has been battered since early October. It is my humble view that it may retrace to above 0.69 before commencing the downtrend. So, be cautious to take short position immediately when price retraces to above 0.6830.

The Euro/NZD may give a better opportunity to trade if price retraces close to 1.70 level.

Can Justin assist us with his analysis of the Euro/NZD pair.

As usual, trade cautiously.

Thanks to Justin.

Reply
Ky Tran says

Thank you for the analysis.

Reply
Pipo says

Thanks Justin.
Really helpful.

Reply
Isabel says

Thank you for sharing! I love all your knowledge!

Reply
Mafeka says

Thanks Man-J

Reply
Waqas says

I am learning everyday from weekly updates

Reply
A.S.Saravanan says

Greetings Bennett, …..Very informative charts…By the way, I have one doubt here….For EurUsd, the bottom support line why cannot be at 1.1576…..your support line is at 1.1490….Any specific reason….

Reply
Add Your Reply