Daily Price Action

Weekly Forex Forecast (May 30 – June 3, 2016)


EURUSD ended last week just 50 pips from a confluence of support that could very well be the biggest test since the March 10th ECB decision. The result of that event, by the way, is now 60 pips under water.

Which test is that, you ask?

The 1.1060 handle has played a vital role since March of 2015 and is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the December 2015 low at 1.0515 to the current 2016 high at 1.1615.

Additionally, it’s the intersection of trend line support that extends from the December 2015 low.

So while the pair has made sellers a lot of profit since the May 3rd pin bar, myself included, a daily close below 1.1060 would open the door to further losses.

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EURUSD key support and resistance levels

The resurgence of the US dollar proved too much for GBPUSD to handle last week. The 1.4670 level had been primed for a breakout opportunity. However, USD bulls had other plans on Friday.

What saved us from getting sucked into last week’s break of 1.4670 was the lack of subsequent bullish price action. Thursday’s session managed to close back above the level, but it was hardly justification to go long.

Another factor that made any buying unfavorable is how overextended the pound had become based on the 10 and 20 EMAs. Even after a breakout, it’s usually a good idea to stay on the sidelines if the mean isn’t close behind to play a supporting role.

GBPUSD possible false break

USDCHF bulls face a critical test this week. After rallying an additional 290 pips since reaching our profit target at 0.9650, the US dollar pair ended last week just 58 pips shy of testing parity.

While it has only been ten weeks since the psychological level was last tested, parity (1.00) is no stranger to influencing prices. It played a significant role in November and December of last year and has made its mark in every month in 2016 except April.

I remain bullish here as long as the pair remains above 0.9886 on a daily closing basis. Key resistance comes in at 1.00 with a close above that exposing the 1.0106 handle.

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USDCHF parity in focus

NZDUSD finally gave in on Friday, closing at its lowest price since March 25th. I mentioned the break below channel support back on May 6th, and although the pair managed to rebound a bit higher than expected, the 2015 close near 0.6830 held its ground.

From here the next critical support level doesn’t show up until 0.6550. This area played a crucial role between January and February and is also the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the September 2015 low at 0.6235 to the current 2016 high at 0.7053.

Any attempt at a move higher this week will likely be interrupted by sellers at 0.6760. This level was responsible for rejecting advances on six consecutive days recently, including the bearish pin bar that formed on May 23rd.

I remain short from 0.6830.

NZDUSD key technical break and support

EURGBP continued its descent last week after confirming the three-month head and shoulders pattern on May 18th. And although the pair has lost an impressive 320 pips since the May 4th commentary, it’s only halfway to the objective when measuring from the broken neckline.

But that doesn’t mean sellers won’t face trouble spots on the way to the 0.7386 target.

The 0.7525 handle is sure to put up a fight if tested this week. This level acted as support in January and early February and is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2015 low at 0.6935 to the current 2016 high at 0.8116.

But while sellers of the Euro cross may book profits near 0.7525, a close below this level would present a fresh opportunity for those interested in taking advantage of the recent bearish momentum.

Want to see how we are trading these setups? Click here to get lifetime access.

EURGBP head and shoulders reversal pattern

Leave a Comment:

Josephine says

Hi Justin.
Thank you for the very helpful and informative analysis. They have helped me improve my analysis and view of the market.

    Justin Bennett says

    That’s great to hear, Josephine. It’s my pleasure.

Chris says

Hey Justin, I recently came across your site and have really taken to how well you explain your methods to beginners in a really clear way. I have been with 2 other price action mentors from Aussi as well and find myself looking at your reviews a lot more .. I am trying to get these S@R right and learning thee patterns that you teach. Most likely will get your membership in due course.

Thanks Chris

    Justin Bennett says

    Chris, I’m pleased to hear that. It’s tricky getting the right balance between simple and comprehensive. Most sites I’ve seen tend to lean too far one way or the other.

    Thanks for the feedback. Let me know if you have questions along the way.

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