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In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD, and BTCUSDT through April 23, 2021.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
The EURUSD closed last week above the 1.1950 area I’ve mentioned a few times recently.
However, as I describe in today’s video, there is more resistance just above Friday’s high, near 1.2000.
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Buyers have to clear that area to expose 1.2030 and perhaps 1.2180.
Alternatively, bearish price action from the 1.2000 region followed by a daily close below 1.1920 could send the EURUSD lower.
Key support below the 1.1920 area comes in at 1.1700.
GBPUSD is trying to break free from a descending channel.
I pointed this pattern out last weekend.
Although it looks like Friday just barely closed above it, I’d like to see something more convincing.
If it can get above the 1.3840 level on the daily, we could see a run toward 1.4000.
Alternatively, bearish price action from the 1.3840 area could signal a turn lower toward 1.3680.
USDJPY is approaching a critical support area near 108.00.
That’s the intersection of the 2015 trend line and a shorter-term trend line from the January 4th low.
Bullish price action from that area could extend the rally back to 110.80, or perhaps 112.20.
Alternatively, a daily close below 108.00 would suggest weakness and could expose 106.60.
XAUUSD is coming off its double bottom from $1,680 nicely.
I mentioned this pattern on March 31st.
Last week’s close above $1,760 flips that level to support for the week ahead.
The measured objective of the double bottom is $1,830, which is a key horizontal level and a Fibonacci of the 2020 range.
Buyers would have to clear $1,850 to secure higher prices.
Alternatively, a daily close back below $1,760 would indicate weakness.
Bitcoin took a big hit overnight.
After hovering above $60,000 for days, the largest crypto by market cap fell 16% in a matter of hours.
In many ways, this drop was expected.
I even tweeted that I didn’t like the look of the BTCUSDT chart on Saturday about 12 hours before the selloff.
Despite carving higher highs and higher lows in recent weeks, Bitcoin had lost a lot of its bullish momentum.
That was the key takeaway from my Saturday tweet.
BTCUSDT is testing the previously open CME gap at $54,000 today.
We’ll have to see if that holds, but my guess is that this pullback is just getting started.
I think we could finally see that $42,000 pullback, if not $35,000.
That may seem unthinkable to some, but that’s precisely why it’s likely, in my opinion.
Only a daily close above $65,000 would negate my outlook.