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In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and BTCUSD through March 26, 2021.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
The EURUSD has struggled to regain the 1.1950 level as support.
You can see where the pair closed below the area earlier this month.
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As long as the euro is below 1.1950 on a weekly closing basis, the idea of a move back to 1.1600 is front and center.
I’m also sticking to the weekly chart for now.
The EURUSD daily time frame is a mess, while the weekly chart below illustrates a pretty clear picture for the pair.
We’ll see what the week ahead has in store, but the EURUSD looks relatively weak while below 1.1950 on a weekly basis.
I continue to think GBPUSD put in a false break in late February.
That could trigger an extended move lower for the pair.
However, sellers first have to get through the 1.3800 region, which is a confluence of support.
Do that, and we could see the GBPUSD head back to 1.3500.
Alternatively, a bounce from the 1.3800 area would likely find resistance near 1.4000.
The USDJPY is testing a multi-year trend line from the 2015 high.
The level connects with the February 2020 high, which preceded the March decline that sent the USDJPY 1,000 pips lower.
As you can see, the market is challenging the resistance level today just above the 109.00 handle.
Whether you see today’s retest as a selling opportunity or an upcoming bullish breakout depends on your outlook.
I have a relatively neutral stance at the moment.
A close above 109.30 could offer an attractive buying opportunity.
On the other hand, bearish price action on the weekly chart could send USDJPY lower.
However, the daily chart may offer some clues.
Notice how USDJPY is consolidating below 109.30 on the daily time frame.
That may be an indication of an imminent break higher.
Usually, consolidation just below a key resistance level is bullish.
We’ll have to wait and see if that’s the case here, but so far, I have no reason to be bearish, much less short the USDJPY.
If buyers can clear 109.30 resistance next week, it could send the pair toward the 2020 high at 112.00.
Alternatively, bearish price action from the 109.30 region could offer an opportunity to get short.
That said, the bearish signal would need to occur on the weekly chart to help offset the bullish momentum we’ve seen since January.
The AUDUSD uptrend that began last November looks tired.
I wrote about the possibility of a head and shoulders pattern, and my stance on that hasn’t changed.
However, like any topping pattern, we need confirmation.
For the AUDUSD, that means a daily close below the 0.7650 region.
That would confirm the bearish reversal pattern and expose 0.7500.
The measured objective of the pattern (if confirmed) is just below 0.7300.
Alternatively, a move above last week’s high at 0.7850 would negate the bearish outlook.
Disclosure: I hold an AUDUSD short position.
Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to climb above its recent all-time high of $61,844.
It’s holding up relatively well, but Bitcoin needs to carve fresh highs to negate the potential for another pullback.
Like it or not, all risk assets look a little unstable at the moment.
That doesn’t mean BTC will selloff.
I don’t know where this or any market is going; nobody does.
However, I am staying cautious until March 31st or until Bitcoin closes a day above the $62,000 area.
I’m still as bullish as ever for this cycle, which I believe has another five or six months to go.
A close above $62,000 would open the door to $65,000, and perhaps $70,000.
Alternatively, a daily close below $57,300 would signal weakness and a potential correction toward $52,000, perhaps as low as $42,000.