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In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, and ETHUSD through February 19, 2021.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
The EURUSD confirmed what appears to be a false break this week.
I mentioned last weekend how the close below 1.2000 could be a false break given the strong uptrend since last year.
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Sure enough, EURUSD closed back above 1.2000 this week.
Then, on Friday, the euro tested a key trend line from the May 2020 low.
So far, that area is holding as support.
As long as the EURUSD holds above the 1.2000 area on a daily closing basis, I favor higher prices.
Just keep in mind that 1.2160 will play a role as resistance if the pair does try to move back to 1.2330 next week.
GBPUSD is another pair that’s playing out well.
I’ve discussed the bullish scenario here for weeks, including last week’s close above the 1.3700 handle.
As you can see, GBPUSD took full advantage of that this week, climbing 170 pips from the weekly low.
Keep an eye on 1.4000 next week as I do expect sellers to defend it.
If GBPUSD can close above 1.4000 in the coming days, there isn’t much to prevent a rally to 1.4350.
I discussed how AUDUSD could bounce from channel support in early February.
I also mentioned last weekend how the 0.7640 area could serve as support going forward.
Not only did AUDUSD hold above 0.7640 this week, but it also closed above channel resistance.
So far, that level is hold as support.
As long as AUDUSD stays above 0.7700 on a daily closing basis, I favor a move higher.
Key resistance comes in at 0.7815, followed by 0.7930.
XAUUSD (gold) is struggling. There’s no other way to say it.
The only thing I can think of is that Bitcoin (BTC) is literally sucking the life out of the former king of inflationary protection.
Perhaps gold is just lagging and will make its move later this year.
I wouldn’t be surprised by that at all, and I’m by no means saying that gold and silver are no longer sensible investments.
However, as I stated several months ago, Bitcoin was always likely to outperform gold this year.
As for the technicals, the $1,800 area could serve as support for next week.
If XAUUSD closes below that, it may struggle to find a meaningful support until the channel floor.
On the other hand, a move higher would need to clear $1,900 to extend gold higher.
ETHUSD (Ethereum) has gone crazy since I first discussed it on this site last year, and in a good way.
When I first wrote about ETH last year, the crypto was trading just above $200.
Less than one year later, and it’s approaching $2,000.
It’s also trading above its previous cycle high near $1,440.
The latest channel (below) hints at a much higher price in February, perhaps toward $3,000 or even $4,000 later this month.
Of course, there are no guarantees.
Furthermore, ETHUSD needs to clear the $1,900 area on a daily closing basis to make those prices a reality.