In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, and BTCUSD through March 5, 2021.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
The EURUSD took a hard spill last week after testing 1.2200.
We had been tracking an inverse head and shoulders pattern, that did play out, at least for a couple of days.
However, the way EURUSD ended last week points to further losses.
That’s especially true if the 1.2070 support fails.
That could re-expose 1.2000 with a break there opening the door to a larger correction to 1.1890.
GBPUSD also suffered an aggressive pullback at the end of last week.
That move put the pair back inside a long-standing ascending channel.
At the moment, the 1.3900 area is serving as support.
If that breaks, we could see GBPUSD return to 1.3740.
Key resistance for the week ahead comes in near 1.4000.
Despite last week’s selloff, the AUDUSD performed extremely well immediately following the breakout earlier this month.
The break from this bull flag pattern was good for 270 pips.
That came to an abrupt end on Thursday.
We may get a bounce from 0.7680 early this week, but AUDUSD looks weak following the late-week selloff.
A close below 0.7680 would expose 0.7640, and perhaps 0.7500.
Gold (XAUUSD) has really struggled in recent months.
What looked like a bull flag late last year is quickly turning into a more substantial downtrend.
Unless XAUUSD finds support at $1,680 over the coming days, gold bulls may be in trouble.
That area is key channel support, and a critical horizontal level.
It’s also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 to 2021 range.
Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled this past week.
But that isn’t a surprise. After all, the largest crypto by market cap enjoyed a 460% rally over five months.
Furthermore, we’ve seen this type of correction before.
In January, Bitcoin fell 31%, which triggered a 100% rally from the lows.
BTCUSD was down 26% as of Sunday’s low.
While there are no guarantees that history will repeat, cryptos are in the middle of a cyclical bull market.
If the last two cycles are any guide, there are at least six months left in this bull market.
That means dips are for buying, at least that’s how I’m treating them.
There’s a confluence of support near $41,000.
However, a daily close above $49,000 would give me more confidence that Sunday’s low will hold, at least for now.