Weekly Forex Forecast (January 14 – 18, 2019)

by Justin Bennett  · 

January 13, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

January 13, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

January 13, 2019

EURUSD bulls broke through a significant level last week.

Monday’s 1.1474 close confirmed the break of falling wedge resistance that extends from April 2018. I discussed this pattern on Christmas Eve.

Tuesday’s session was mostly consolidation. But by Wednesday the euro was carving the highest price since October of last year.

That didn’t last long though.

The two-day pullback nearly erased all of Wednesday’s gains. It’s difficult to tell if it’s a sign of further losses or simply profit taking before the weekend.

Either way, I still think we could see bids develop at 1.1450/70 this week.

Even if EURUSD falls below 1.1450, the bullish potential is intact while above former wedge resistance (blue line below).

If the single currency drops back below this level on a daily closing basis, I will turn bearish again.

For now, though, I’ll be watching to see how EURUSD reacts to the 1.1450/70 support area.

Key resistance comes in at 1.1620 followed by 1.1730.

Save 40% on a Lifetime Membership to Daily Price Action – Ends January 31st!

Click Here to start profiting with Justin.

EURUSD new support area

GBPUSD has been trending lower since April 2018.

At the January 3rd flash crash low, the pair was down nearly 2,000 pips from the April 2018 high.

There’s no doubting the fact that sellers have been in control.

However, there is a pattern that GBPUSD bears shouldn’t ignore.

Similar to EURUSD, the pound has carved what appears to be a falling wedge pattern. Last week’s close above resistance suggests we could see bids develop going forward.

The “daily close” refers to the New York 5 pm EST close.

Click here to get instant access to the same charts I use for trading price action.

At the moment, that trend line comes in near 1.2800. As long as the pair holds above it on a daily closing basis, the 1.3050/70 area is exposed.

Alternatively, a daily close back below the 1.2800 area could send GBPUSD back to 1.2700.

Keep in mind that Brexit will remain front and center for some time. As such, you should expect volatility both ways for weeks and months to come.

GBPUSD price action

USDJPY hit my target at 108.00 in a hurry two weeks ago.

On December 17th, I published a commentary that explained why I felt a break lower was likely.

At the time, the pair was trading at 113.00. In fact, it was still well within the wedge pattern that had developed earlier in 2018.

However, the clues did point to a break lower, not higher.

USDJPY cleared wedge support on December 18th and retested the level as new resistance on the 19th.

Based on the height of the pattern, I felt a move to 108.00 was likely.

It seemed far-fetched at the time, but the January flash crash took out the 108.00 handle and even extended to 105.60 during the same session.

It was an intraday loss of more than 300 pips.

Events like the one on the 3rd tend to “flush” the market. Orders that weren’t supposed to trigger for days or weeks get hit in minutes or even seconds.

That leaves a pair like USDJPY scrambling to find its footing.

So far, it seems sellers have reached a short-term exhaustion point. But this is not a buying opportunity, at least not for me.

I think any bounce here is temporary. And if USDJPY moves back into that 109.80 resistance area, I will be on the lookout for bearish price action.

Key support for the week ahead comes in at 107.70 followed by 105.60.

IMPORTANT: I use New York close charts so that each day closes at 5 pm EST.

Click Here to get access to the same charts I use.

USDJPY wedge pattern on the daily chart

On January 3rd I mentioned a USDCAD short opportunity.

The pair was coming off a multi-month resistance level and had just broken back inside a much smaller ascending channel.

The next four sessions totaled a loss of more than 300 pips.

However, with USDCAD still below 1.3320 and former channel support near 1.3400, the pair could see additional losses going forward.

But you also don’t want to chase.

Unless you’re already short USDCAD from two weeks ago, it makes sense to watch for a selling opportunity from 1.3320 resistance.

If we don’t get a signal from 1.3320, look to the 1.3400 area.

As I wrote on January 8th, my target remains the 1.3060 area.

USDCAD channel breakdown on daily time frame

NZDUSD is another one that’s worked out well for us.

On January 4th I wrote about the weekly bullish pin bar that formed at key support.

After a brief retest of the 0.6700 support area, NZDUSD rallied 100 pips last week.

Things still look relatively bullish from where I’m sitting. As long as the 0.6790 support area holds this week, we could see NZDUSD rally toward 0.6950.

But even that might not be the pair’s final target.

Given the (potential) ascending channel that’s forming, we could see NZDUSD rally as high as 0.7170 over the coming weeks.

However, it all depends on how the pair reacts to 0.6790 over the coming sessions.

Save 40% on a Lifetime Membership to Daily Price Action – Ends January 31st!

Click Here to start profiting with Justin.

NZDUSD ascending channel

Continue Learning


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  1. nice analysis!. joining your membership programme this week as a birthday present to myself! Super excited!!. i will be your BEST student till date!

    1. Damola ill tell you one thing what you get here freely on this page is exactly what you will get on the members area nothing new, Justin exposes toomuch freely then you wonder why u joined his member area.

      1. hmm, if you are a member already, are u then saying u would rather not have joined the community? that the money is better spent someplace else?

          1. Non-members don’t get the opportunity to ask me detailed questions about a setup like members do. I also don’t share entries and exits on the public site.

            Furthermore, I’m incredibly active in the forums and members can private message me any time with questions.

            Those are all things you will never have access to on the public site.

          2. And ill tell you one thing Justin i am on the memberss area, you dont share any entries but you will just come up and say you made entry few days ago cos the market has moved in favour. this is true lie you never share your entries neither you post charts with your entries.

      2. It is not totally true Jay Jay the daily set up and the trade ideas in the member area can not be gotten with members comment on any trade you want to take makes the members area great.

      3. Why are you discouraging someone who feels value for what he gets from this site and still hopes to move extra mile in joining the members area? What you do not know is more than what you feel you know .

      4. That isn’t true. I share entries and exits in the member’s area and also post charts and make comments that are never seen here on the public site.

        Furthermore, I’m also available to members via private message. Have you tried sending me one yet? I’m going to assume the answer is no.

  2. Justin is a great guy he shows us the way into this business, the way he explains his analysis he teaches us how to trade well so what he gives us is valuable and profitable I will also join his membership area soon doesn’t matter if what he gives there is the same as here, that is why he will continue to be blessed 👍🏻 Thank you Justin 🙏🙏

    1. very True. I love the way he presents his analysis. it’s nothing like i’ve seen. looking forward to having u onboard Ruth!

    1. Hi Justin, yes maybe you can help to comment on USD/CHF and also CAD/CHF since they are on a channel trend. Also is CAD/CHF currently a false breakout and eventually will be pull back inside the channel? Looking forward for you views and opinions.

  3. Great analysis good result
    As a member of your community who subscribe recently I want to copy trade your TRADE how do I go about it?

  4. I am not so sure about the bullish continuation pattern of EURUSD, as the downward trendline you are referring to, has not been tested many times. The price currently moves within a well defined upward channel since November 12 low of 1.1213. However, looking at the bigger picture, this channel can be viewed as a bearish flag as well. If that is the case, the measurement of the pattern is around 600 pips (from 1.1814 high to 1.1213 low). So if the support of the channel, currently around 1.1340-1.1350 breaks, we could see EURUSD collapse up to 1.0969 (600 pips from January 10 high of 1.1569) or at least up to the round number of 1.10. Of course The price could move up from the support of the channel as well, which could give as about 270-280 pips to work with – up to 1.1620. This level will be a confluence of the channel resistance and an important horizontal level. In any case, if the price gets to the channel support, I will be looking for both bullish or bearish price action.
    Happy trading!

  5. It looks at the bigger picture, this channel can be viewed as a bearish flag as well. If that is the case, the measurement of the pattern is around 600 pips. I always look forward to your analysis. It keeps me motivated to learn more every day. Thanks, Justin. I love the way he presents his analysis. it’s nothing like I’ve seen. looking forward to having u onboard Ruth.

{"email":"Email address invalid","url":"Website address invalid","required":"Required field missing"}