Daily Price Action
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GBPJPY Price Action Validates Final Stage of Consolidation

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Over the weekend I mentioned how the 153.80 area would likely serve as resistance for the GBPJPY. Prices bounced around this area last week, but Friday’s final print left me quite bearish.

As you can see from the chart below, the GBPJPY tested the 153.80 area on Monday. The pair then plunged toward the 152.00 handle earlier today which is the support level I mentioned in the weekly forecast.

One reason for my bearishness was the weekly pin bar that sellers left in their wake on Friday. I pointed this out on Sunday, and so far sellers have followed through despite today’s bounce.

Another reason I favor buying the yen is due to what’s happening with other yen crosses. The EURJPY remains below 136.60, which I believe is a significant top and also breached 135.20 support on Friday.

The NZDJPY and CADJPY are two more examples of recent yen strength. Whether or not this theme carries through today’s session and the days and weeks to come is unknown, but so far it’s holding up well.

For the price action trader, today’s movement on the GBPJPY is ideal. Not only did we get a rejection from the 153.80 resistance area worth 180 pips, but we also have further evidence to suggest that wedge support near 152.00 is indeed significant.

Why is that important?

It’s important because it means a daily close below the 152.00 area would likely trigger another round of selling pressure. And despite today’s aggressive bounce, I still believe a break lower is in the cards.

A daily close (New York 5 pm EST) below 152.00/30 would expose the next key support at 149.35. A close below that would pave the way for a move to the 147.00 handle followed by 144.00.

Alternatively, a final print of 153.80 or higher would challenge the potential for a move lower.

You may be thinking, why wait for a close below 152.00 to enter short? Why not commit capital now so you can perhaps scale in later?

If you have the conviction to do so and such an entry satisfies the requirements you’ve laid out for yourself, there’s little need to wait.

Just know that any price action above 152.00/30 is still considered part of a broader five-month consolidation phase which implies an elevated level of uncertainty.

As always, the decision is yours.

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GBPJPY rising wedge on the daily chart

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13 comments
Nwoko Akachukwu says

Sir I went short on Eurjpy at 134.84 when the bulls were pushing it up believing that 135.20 range will offer some resistance.. But somehow I’m scared. I don’t know whether I’m on the right path. The price has been within 135.13 to 135.00. Is there any chance of it falling tonight or has the bulls taken over?

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Shiku says

Thanks for guidance, it has really helped.

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Veronica says

Thank you Sir… Your analysis is always profitable! Keep up the good work you are doing!

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Diana says

It closed at 153.90. Is that too high for your bearish outlook?

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Erwan says

Thank you sir…I’ll try to understand your analysis&follow it…thanks alot

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Vijai says

Thank you very much, Justin. Wait and see, right?

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Sahan says

Thank you. Profitable week with your correct analysis.Keep up the good work.

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Arindam says

Nice

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Bryan Moore says

I notice that the GBPJPY busted 153.80 resistance by about 1500 pips. Does that mean we are 1500 pips more excited about the top or does it mean it kills the whole opportunity? Is this why waiting until it breaks the 152.00 support is safer? Is it foolish to put in a sell transaction now thinking it has to be at the top?

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Albert Sim says

The higher Gap-Opening did has its impact. My mistake to ignore it. Hmmm….
A lesson learned.

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Haitham says

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grace kisnga says

sir, I went short on Two pairs, USD/JPY and GDP/JPY but now i see the uptrend should i keep holding to come back to its trend which is down trend or should i close the trades with losses

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