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GBPJPY: 300-Pip Target Contingent on Today’s Close

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Back on March 22, I wrote that GBPJPY is vulnerable below 147.00.

That area was former rising wedge support which would have likely attracted sellers if tested as new resistance.

As you can see from the chart below, GBPJPY has only managed to climb as high as 146.50.

The breakdown on the 20th is still in play which leaves the pair vulnerable.

But there was a notable development on Thursday.

You may recall the 144.60 horizontal support level from my March 22nd post.

Well, GBPJPY closed below that level at the end of Thursday’s session. That wasn’t a surprise given the GBPUSD trend line break I pointed out yesterday.

Now that the GBPJPY is below 144.60 on a daily closing basis, it’s time to see if the pair is going to respect it as new resistance.

For that, we need a daily close below 144.60 today.

Remember that I use New York close charts where each 24-hour session closes at 5 pm EST. These charts are required for trading price action on the higher time frames.

If the pair closes above it, we could see more of this sideways action going into next week.

In fact, we may even see a bid crop up at 144.60 if (and only if) GBPJPY closes above that level today.

Alternatively, a daily and weekly close below 144.60 would suggest further losses are in store for next week.

It would also open up the next key support at 141.15.

And if this was indeed a rising wedge break, then a move to the pattern’s inception point of 134.00 over the coming weeks wouldn’t be a surprise.

For now, though, all eyes are on today’s close in relation to 144.60.

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GBPJPY daily close below key support

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15 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Chaz leeray says

Thanks a lot Justin

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Davidi says

I still expect a move higher, I see this a trap for sellers

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    Olubayo Tunmise says

    Thanks Mr Justin, your analysis is always a light to my path.

    Reply
      Justin Bennett says

      You’re welcome.

      Reply
    Fernando says

    i agree

    Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    We’ll see.

    Reply
Waqas says

Which moving average u use?

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Jon says

Thanks Justin, great analysis.

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Jon. Have a great week!

    Reply
Adebayo sunday says

Thanks for your analysis so what move should will expected next week bullish or bearish

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Ben says

Hi Justin Bennett, Looking at the GU Weekly, I notice an inverted head and shoulder. Do you expect it to come into play after breaking the neck line?

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Eric says

Hi Justin,

Since GBPJPY closed below 144.60 on a daily bar, so for the retest to this level 144.60, must it be a daily bar too or it can be 4 hrs, 8 hrs etc?

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