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Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, XAUUSD (September 28 – October 2, 2020)

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Note: The videos that usually accompany the weekly forecasts will be available again starting next week, October 3rd.

EURUSD Technicals

The EURUSD found a bid last week at 1.1610.

While it may not be evident from the daily chart, a view of the monthly time frame going back to mid-2016 shows why 1.1610 is significant.

However, the monthly chart also shows a bearish engulfing candle for September.

That could trigger additional losses later this year.

If 1.1610 fails to push EURUSD higher, I’ll look to the area around 1.1450.

The price action from 2015 and 2016 shows why 1.1450 or thereabouts is critical, especially on the weekly time frame.

On the flip side, a close above 1.1710 would be seen as bullish, but wouldn’t get euro bulls out of trouble entirely.

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EURUSD daily chart with key levels
EURUSD daily time frame

GBPUSD Technicals

GBPUSD is unfavorable at the moment, at least for the way I trade.

The 1.2670 area is holding as support for now, but the pair lacks direction.

That said, the uptrend is intact, which means I’m only interested in buying opportunities for now.

One thing that could trigger further upside would be a close above 1.2980.

Notice how 1.2980 served as support in early August and also attracted sellers earlier this month.

A close above 1.2980 would be bullish and could re-expose 1.3260.

GBPUSD support and resistance
GBPUSD daily time frame

USDJPY Technicals

USDJPY is little changed since I last wrote about the pair.

The market is still holding below that 106.50 region, which is serving as resistance following the July close below the multi-year trend line.

Just keep in mind that USDJPY sellers need to clear 104.20 to open up 101.00.

The latter has been my target following the July breakdown.

If USDJPY carves yet another lower high and rotates back to 104.20, a breakdown would seem imminent.

Alternatively, a monthly close back above the 106.50 region would negate the bearish outlook.

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USDJPY monthly time frame
USDJPY monthly time frame

NZDUSD Technicals

I wrote about this NZDUSD rising wedge on September 14th.

At the time, the pair hadn’t broken below wedge support, but a breakdown seemed imminent.

By September 22nd, NZDUSD had closed below support.

You can see how the pair has caught a bid around the 0.65 handle.

That’s an area I’ve mentioned several times in recent weeks.

If NZDUSD closes below 0.6500, keep an eye on the 0.6380 area as that area could attract an influx of buyers.

But even if the New Zealand dollar continues to fall, I’d be careful not to get too bearish here.

I wrote about the potential for an inverse head and shoulders on September 15th.

As long as the pair is above that 0.6400 region, that potential bullish pattern is alive and well.

NZDUSD rising wedge on the daily
NZDUSD daily time frame

XAUUSD Technicals

Gold (XAUUSD) sold off recently, along with most other assets.

The pair even closed back below 1900, which was the previous all-time high.

However, I still think this is a bear trap.

The uptrend that started in 2016 is intact, which means pullbacks are buying opportunities for those with a multi-year time horizon.

However, this pullback may not be over just yet.

A view of the weekly time frame going back to 2011 and 2012 illustrates how significant the 1790 – 1820 area is.

Any dip into that region followed by bullish price action such as a pin bar could present a buying opportunity.

Alternatively, a close back above 1900 would be bullish.

Above 1900, we have 2015, followed by 2075.

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Gold XAUUSD support area
XAUUSD daily time frame

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12 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Hassan Mahmood says

Bundle of THANKS to you Sir, i am learning a lot from your free resources. you are helping a lot of new traders.

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Themba paul Mposula says

Since I started following you, am making profits, tnx body

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Nwosu Onyeka Nelson says

For some reasons i support the idea that GBPUSD is directionless but i also look to see selling pressure at 1.3200 area which may have the pair return to 1.2770- 1.2650 level before a committed move lower. Good job Justin!

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MUZAMMIL says

always waiting for your weekly forecast.

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ali says

Thanks sir justin for the excellent setup.

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Deepak says

Thank you Justin for your updates

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G.DANIEL says

interesting

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Emily Robson says

wow
thanks Mr Justin for sharing these analysis. i hope i also benefit from this.

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Samuel says

Thanks.superb analysis.thanks.

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owodunni says

thank u sir, very

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owodunni says

thank u sir,

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