In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, XAUUSD, and ETHUSD through August 21, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
EURUSD spent a second week consolidating between 1.1700 support and 1.1900 resistance.
It isn’t surprising considering the aggressiveness of the July rally.
Many who entered during that rally have taken profit, while others who were on the sideline have had time to accumulate.
That’s what makes consolidation like this healthy for any trend.
If you saw my posts in July, you know I was getting bullish on the EURUSD for a move into the 1.1600 region.
However, as I told DPA members back then, I decided to keep that long position from 1.1299 on as I was anticipating a move above 1.1600.
And that hasn’t changed.
As long as EURUSD remains above 1.1600 on a daily closing basis, I like the idea of a higher euro against the USD.
That said, it’s going to take a daily close above 1.1900 to trigger the next leg higher toward the 1.2090 resistance area.
If we do see EURUSD extend above 1.1900, though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1.2500 later this year.
GBPUSD is in a similar situation to that of EURUSD.
The pair continued its consolidation last week between 1.2980 support and 1.3160 resistance.
The latter is the confluence of resistance that I mentioned in last week’s forecast.
Buyers need to secure a daily close above 1.3160 to send the pound higher.
A close above 1.3160 would open the door to 1.3500.
Key support for the week ahead remains 1.2980.
NZDUSD has pulled back of late after tagging the 0.6720 area.
However, I think sellers need to be careful here.
The pair is still trading above the top of that multi-year wedge pattern.
I’ve written about this structure several times, and also talked about the false break that materialized with June’s close.
That confirmed false move supported the bullish narrative that’s been developing since April.
As long as 0.6500 is intact as support, I like the idea of a higher NZDUSD.
Key resistance comes in at 0.6720, with a close above that taking on the 0.6940 region.
XAUUSD (gold) suffered a significant loss last Tuesday.
At more than five percent, it was the largest single-day drop in the last few years.
Even the March selloff didn’t register a loss that significant, at least not at the daily close.
However, I don’t see any scenario where XAUUSD becomes a sell, at least not in the long run.
The uptrend is intact as is the cyclical bull market that I’ve been discussing for weeks.
The 45-year chart of gold above says it all.
The consolidation between 2011 and 2019 formed a continuation pattern within a broader bull market for gold.
But every bull market has pullbacks.
And the more aggressive the uptrend is, the more unnerving the pullbacks are likely to be.
Look no further than the August 11th candle.
Countertrend moves like that are a necessary evil to shake out any “weak hands” and reset the momentum.
I’m not saying that the pullback is over, but I am still long gold via the junior miners that I bought in April.
I told DPA members about it, and those companies are still up well over 100% even after Tuesday’s pullback.
One reason I chose to invest in gold strength rather than trade is that I didn’t have to worry about volatility over the next few years.
So far, I’m glad I took that route.
As for the short-term, keep an eye on how 1940 holds as support going forward.
However, 2075 is going to be the big level on everyone’s mind now.
As long as gold is below that level on a daily closing basis, expect this consolidation to continue.
I first wrote about ETHUSD (Ethereum) on June 4th.
At the time, the cryptocurrency was trading near $230.
Fast forward to today, and it’s holding firm at $435, a gain of 90%.
While a 90% gain in two and a half months sounds attractive, and some will no doubt book profits, I think doing so now is a mistake.
As I mentioned on August 4th, the next key resistance level for ETHUSD is the $800 area.
But even that’s only scratching the surface.
Here’s what I wrote on the 4th:
In the long run, I think Ethereum is going much higher than that.
Anyone who thinks Ethereum will only reach $800 or its all-time high near $1,400 over the next two years is misjudging the potential.
Of course, that’s just my opinion.
In the near-term, I like the idea of $400 providing support.
The next stop for Ethereum is likely $550 followed by $800.
But as I’ve stated for months now, I’m treating Bitcoin, Ethereum, VeChain, and other cryptocurrencies as multi-year investments.