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EURUSD: Where to From Here?

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same style charts I use on this website.

The EURUSD unwind continues. The April 20 close below the twelve-month trend line that extends from the April 2017 low was apparently what sellers needed to jump on the bandwagon.

On Sunday, I mentioned how we might get a bounce higher to start the week. Friday’s bullish candle looked promising for a selling opportunity at higher levels, perhaps 1.2240, but Euro bears had other plans.

Monday’s close below the 1.2090 handle opened the door to the next key support at 1.1930. Believe it or not, the EURUSD is just 40 pips from the level as I type this.

While I do anticipate an influx of buying pressure at 1.1930, I’m not expecting a complete reversal. In fact, I’ll view any strength here as a potential opportunity to get short.

That said, it’s important not to chase. Even the most aggressive moves need time to cool off and shift hands a bit. The EURUSD is no different.

From here it’s just a matter of playing the ranges. A move back to the 1.2090 area could offer a chance to get short. Alternatively, a daily close (using a New York close chart) below 1.1930 would pave the way for a move to 1.1830 followed by 1.1700.

Keep in mind that we have a Fed rate decision and statement today at 2 pm EST. Non-farm payroll is also this Friday at its usual time of 8:30 am EST. Be sure to account for these events if you plan on trading the U.S. dollar this week.

EURUSD daily time frame

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18 comments
Praise says

Yea. you got it right as to be mindful of fed rate decision and NFP. Thanks for the update.

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Olivia phiri says

OK that’s good advice

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Sera says

I’ve been waiting for this all week…thanx

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derrick says

this time economic news are being considered i having adverse effect in market than ever before

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ulrich says

very helpfull, also the advice not to chase the movement but to wait! thanks!

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DAVID MITCHELL says

Hi Justin, could you please help with some advice on how you recommend we account for these news events if planning on trading the U.S. dollar this week or more accurately in my case, if you’re already in these trades?

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    Justin Bennett says

    David,

    This post might help:

    https://dailypriceaction.com/friday-qna/how-i-trade-forex-without-watching-the-news

    There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to your question. It depends on your risk tolerance, position size, conviction level and overall trading style.

    I can’t tell you whether you should hold or fold because only you know the details of the factors I just mentioned.

    Reply
Esmond says

I’ve found your analysis absolutely spot on and reliable…Thanks for the incredible work… I honestly look forward to your posts daily..

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome. Thanks for sharing that! 🙂

    Reply
Nadzuah says

Thanks justin

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Harmony Nwabuisi says

Justin, i waited as you advised for the EURUSD during its consolidation for three weeks or so, patiently, eventually we got that breakout we were all waiting for………Then, i waited for a retest, hoping to find a valid opportunity to ride with the bears following the breakout market direction, but its looking like the bears are not gonna let that happen any time soon. i use to be a chaser, i can’t believe seeing my self letting a trade opportunity slip away without giving it a chase, which usually eventually begins to do the opposite the moment i enter, and i loose funds at least most of the times…….My point is that, i think am a better trader today. seeing that i now can handle such situations, not allowing my emotions swing me into dangerous moves i usually fall for and knowing that, and i quote “another trade is just by the Conner”.
thank you Justine… that one sank in well….

i have also been gathering some little pips here and there following your price action trading Technics on other pairs….while i wait for eurusd to give us a break for a confirmed valid entry…..and just in incase it doesn’t happen i have also learnt that “its okay” some other setup will come around soon…

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    Justin Bennett says

    Absolutely! Most traders approach the market as if there’s a shortage of opportunities when the opposite is true.

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25 says

Great Stuff J!!!

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.Pierre Mifsud says

From my detailed analysis cannot see it lower than 1.1950 a confluent point of the various XA, AB and BC and legs. So buying at 1.1955 is a perfect spot to ultimately take profits at 1.245 handle or above in a few weeks time

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    Roy Peters says

    Price could fall lower than this 1.1950. please in forex there are no guarantees.

    Be careful with predictions, the forex market can sometimes do the complete opposite of what you think may happen.

    Reply
phillicks Philaphi says

What do you mean by a short

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    Justin Bennett says

    Short = sell
    Long = buy

    Reply
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