Today I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading the EURUSD this week.
I’ll also explain why I’m bearish on the euro through the rest of 2023.
Check out the EURUSD video below and scroll down for the annotated charts and analysis.
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I wrote about a 39-year EURUSD trend line on March 27th.
The pair fell below the 12-month trend line in 2022 and has tested it as new resistance in 2023.
For this reason, I continue to be macro-bearish on the EURUSD.
I’ll only flip bullish if euro bulls can reclaim the trend line above on a monthly closing basis.
But as long as the EURUSD remains below the 1.1100 region on the higher time frames, I favor looking for short opportunities.
Last week’s fakeout above 1.0950 played out perfectly on Friday.
Those who watched last week’s video could have shorted EURUSD on the first 4-hour close below the 4-hour trend line and caught a nice 85-pip selloff into the weekend.
As I mentioned in the Weekly Forex Forecast, the 1.0930-1.0950 area flips to resistance this week.
Any bearish price action from there could offer a favorable selling opportunity.
Key support for EURUSD sits at 1.0820/30, with a sustained break below that, exposing the 2022 trend line near 1.0680.
As explained in today’s video above, the price action in 2023 could be a head and shoulders pattern.
The shoulders are a little close to the head, but it still could qualify.
Regardless, the multi-decade trend line above makes me bearish on the euro overall, and the 1.0930-1.0950 area could offer an excellent short opportunity this week.
Only a higher time frame reclaim of 1.0950 would change my short-term bearish outlook for the EURUSD.
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