Daily Price Action

EURUSD Rally Stalls Below 1.2525


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Mario Draghi’s comments sent the Euro rocketing higher against the U.S. dollar during Thursday’s ECB press conference. We were anticipating some strength given the daily close above 1.2325 on Wednesday.

Another key level I mentioned in that mid-week commentary was 1.2525. Seeing the single currency print 1.2537 at the height of Draghi’s presser, I figured it was only a matter of time before sellers took an interest.

It was also apparent that the EURUSD had become stretched. I often talk about using the 10 and 20 EMAs as a mean reversion tool, and at 1.3537 the pair was more than 300 pips from the mean.

I even thought about shorting the pair at 1.2525 but decided not to buck the trend. As it turns out, it would have been a decent short-term trade.

I’m also much more interested in the Japanese yen right now. I’ve pointed out several ideas this week including the EURJPY, NZDJPY, and CADJPY.

It’s my personal view that the commonalities between these crosses and others suggest a stronger yen over the coming weeks. Visit the links above to see how I’m approaching each one.

As for the EURUSD, prices could go either way at this point. The pair is currently trading in the middle of the 200 pip range between 1.2325 and 1.2525.

Thursday’s bearish rejection candle hints at some weakness, but with the 1.2325 support level just below current prices, I have no interest in selling. Going short here would also be severely against the grain.

In summary, today’s price action indicates a stalemate between buyers and sellers, and the Japanese yen crosses may provide a better outlet going into next week.

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EURUSD key levels on daily chart

Leave a Comment:

Deon says

you really a good trader im like still a newbie an just following your analyses pretty awesome

    Justin Bennett says

    They don’t always work out, but glad to hear you’re benefiting from the content.

Sam says

Thank you Justin!

And your views on AUD/JPY?

    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. I’ll try to sneak the AUDJPY in the weekend forecast.

satheeshkumar says


Bart says

I am also on sideline for EUR/USD but the other calls with patience was A TEXT BOOK PREDICTION! Thanks Kind Regards Justin

Livingstone Basalilwa says

How can I join you

Khaing Khant says

Can i join your life time member with Perfect Money. My country is like a village dont develope

Veronica says

Thank you for the analysis…it really help me especially to spot my Support n resistance and know what’s best time to enter a trade. Am grateful for you Job. Keep doing well

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hossain says

Good job

i will learn by reading your comments says

hello sir,i like your guidance visit this web first time.i am having trade 1.24508 EURUSD buy call.on monday shuold i wait till1.24523.regards

Bambang sutrisno says

Untuk minggu depan ini EURUSD apakah akan naik ? kita pasang BUY or SEL??trmksh

ali says

Hey Justin, I Have been trading for few years not and I believe Euro has some strength left till September this year, it may gain till 1.30 level.. Fed is expecting to raise 3/4 times this year so of course we will be keeping Euro between 1.20 to 1.30 zone.. Brexit and Italian election may reverse this course but for now EUR 1.30 zone in mid term..

Sikhumbuzo says

Hi Justin, i saw a nice head and shoulders setup on the NZDCHF that can be clearly seen on the daily chart but for some reason, price seems to be descending again, this has, in the past, caused me to always take profit at the 38% fib ratio and i just wanted to know if you have a lesson on why this sometimes happens, i know that there’re probably a lot of things that cause this but i just would like to know if there’re more general explanations for this?

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