EURUSD: Preparing for Today’s FOMC Volatility

EURUSD is rallying ahead of today’s Fed rate decision, statement, and press conference.

Monday’s session dipped below the key 1.0850 support area I’ve discussed recently and formed a bullish rejection candle.

So it’s no surprise that today’s rally began from 1.0852 support.

However, events like today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and press conference trigger significant volatility for currencies.

So although EURUSD is rallying now, chances are we will see an intraday pullback during or after today’s events.

I would anticipate volatility between 1.0820 and 1.0930 to be safe.

But as mentioned recently, I’m bullish on EURUSD while the pair is above the January 12th closing price.

The higher highs and lows since late September favor bulls. And even the rising wedge that’s starting to show allows for another 200 to 300 pips of upside.

The 1.1120 to 1.1180 area above is a confluence of resistance based on the November 15th trend line and the highs and lows from November 2021 to March 2022.

In the short term, Euro bulls need to secure a daily close above last week’s 1.0930 highs to extend the rally toward 1.1120 and potentially 1.1180.

Alternatively, a daily close below 1.0850 and 1.0820 would signal weakness, although bears would also have to deal with 1.0780 and 1.0700.

Remember to expect volatility later today starting at 2 pm EST.