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EURUSD Future Direction Hinges on Today’s Close

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The EURUSD was grinding higher even before the London session opened. Buyers took prices above the 1.1670 handle and are holding firm near 1.1745 as I type this.

It puts the single currency well above the make-or-break level at 1.1670. It’s a long-standing pivot and the neckline of what appears to be a head and shoulders reversal.

Not only that, but bulls have breached the trend line that extends from the current 2017 high. They’ve yet to break the level on a daily closing basis, but it’s an impressive move nonetheless.

I’m going to wait this one out. Although the pair looks primed for a move higher, we won’t know where participants stand until the New York close at 5 pm EST. As they say, amateurs open the market; professionals close it.

If the EURUSD closes the day above 1.1670, I’ll be forced to close my short position, which is marginally in profit now.

And if buyers also secure a close above the trend line shown below, I’ll be inclined to reverse my bearish bias. It would have me watching for a buying opportunity for a move back to 1.1875 and perhaps 1.2040.

Alternatively, if sellers pull off an upset and drive prices below 1.1670 before 5 pm EST, I will maintain my short. It would also keep the pressure on 1.1490 followed by 1.1300.

It’s a bit of a toss-up until today’s session closes at 5 pm EST. But with just six hours to go and over 80 pips of ground to cover, sellers have their work cut out for them.

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EURUSD trend line on the daily chart

Leave a Comment:

21 comments
TJ says

Yep, I’ve lost evrything!

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Oladunni Tolu David says

hello, please how do you determine your stop loss, using your strategy

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    Justin Bennett says

    It depends on the strategy and the situation.

    Reply
Femi says

Wow as if you saw and copied my trend line. I have the same trend line on my chart. I closed my trade with bearable losses before it hits my stop. I saw the strong move coming earlier today. If closes above the trend, I will expect a retracement to touch the trend line for a buy opportunity @ around 1.173. Thanks for the review update on Eurusd. I appreciate alot!

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
    Chris says

    Hey everyone I was none of the above . I waited for a close above the 200 EMA on the weekly chart then took out a long position . Doji candle and fib on weekly to add . I’m bullish all the way to 1.200

    Reply
Norbert says

Hy, there , have a look to Point&F Charts, you see much easeier, and often a bit earlier

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Sam says

Hi Justin, I have been following this Head and Shoulders for weeks now.
Question
1. If the price close above 1.1670, then the Head and Shoulders pattern is no more?
2. With regards to a buy opportunity, is it best to first wait for the retest of the trend line?

Thanking you in advance for your response.

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Steven says

Will wait for today’s close and see wether is buy or sell opportunity.

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Tims says

I think buyers are looking to take this pair to test 1.87. Resistance level
A break there will decide further up movement or back down to 1.670 area. That is what i speculate though.
Thanks Justin. I was expecting an analysis of this pair and you did just that.
Thanks a lot.

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    Tims says

    Ooops… I meant 1.187..
    And 1.1670

    Reply
    Vivek says

    Justin I was waiting for ur analysis only. Was checking ur webiste after every 2 hours. I made a short at 1.167 on the basis of previous trade setup of urs. But now i will close it and will open new trade at US close.

    Thanks.

    Reply
Njabulo says

Keep me posted

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federico says

Interesting analysis, thank you Justin.

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Graeme Normington says

Hello Justin. I have also been watching the pull backs to the trendline resistance. When you say that you would look for a buying opportunity if the market closes above the trendline resistance, do you look for that opportunity on the 4 hourly or wait until the next days New York close?

Best regards: Graeme

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Howard says

A combination of strength on Euro & weakness in $ made a very strong bullish candle on 11/14. Right now a bald maribozu. We” see how it closes in 2 hours. Euro at extreme strength level on hourly and starting to pull back slightly.

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Sagitario says

I played the counter trend on my 4 hr chart and made some very nice points “)

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Zulfadly Nurdin says

this is very good description always succes for you thanks ‘

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Femi says

In my opinion, after a bullish candle has been established above the trend line yesterday 5pm EST, we should relax until EURUSD retraces back to the trend line for a buy opportunity. Currently, the daily candle has nearly reached 1.1875. patience is all we need. I am watching and waiting to buy at the touch of the trend. I trust Justin would be kind enough to help dissect the eurusd chart professionally.

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TJ says

Hi Justin,

Do you think that it’s possible that the big players saw too many buy limit order/Stop loss in that area and just bought to hunt them before continuing the down trend?

What do you think?

Thank you for sharing!

Reply
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