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The EURUSD surged above the range top at 1.1260 earlier today.
But at the moment, buyers are struggling to hang on to the level as new support on an intraday basis.
That isn’t a surprise, though.
Euro bulls have struggled to gain any meaningful traction all year.
The downtrend that began in February of last year is still very much intact as long as the pair continues to carve lower highs and lower lows.
As for the more immediate path forward, things become incredibly simple, and 1.1260 is the key.
If buyers manage a daily close above it, we could see EURUSD push higher toward the next key resistance at 1.1410.
It would also confirm the double bottom I wrote about in May.
However, if EURUSD closes today below 1.1260, we’ll have a bearish pin bar on our hands.
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Such a signal could take the single currency back toward the range lows at 1.1110.
But either scenario hinges on today’s New York close at 5 pm EST.
I also think if the current 4-hour candle closes back below 1.1260 at 1 pm EST, a bearish pin bar on the daily is all but guaranteed.
EURUSD has already closed above 1.1260 on a 4-hour closing basis, so I would view a failed attempt as new support as a bearish indicator.
Either way, the next few hours should be interesting.