Important: This site uses New York Close Forex Charts so that each 24-hour session starts and ends at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action.
Could today’s FOMC push EURUSD out of its comfort zone?
I think there’s a good chance.
Even if today’s events don’t force a break, the EURUSD is going to be forced to make a decision soon.
In Sunday’s video, I pointed out this sideways price action below descending channel resistance.
At the moment, that resistance area comes in just above 1.1080.
That’s the confluence of resistance that buyers need to break in order to push EURUSD higher, in my opinion.
As for support, the September 2 high just below 1.1000 is attracting buyers.
We can see that in the price action between the 16th and 17th.
So what’s my plan of action for the EURUSD?
First, I won’t trade ahead of today’s Fed rate decision and statement.
The Fed rate decision is at 2 pm EST with a statement 30 minutes later at 2:30 pm.
There’s bound to be an increase in volatility and unfavorable spreads as markets try to interpret the outcome.
As such, I would rather stand aside and wait for the dust to settle.
Second, I have no interest in trading the EURUSD as long as this sideways price action is present.
I’m sure some of you have made money in this range between 1.0930 support and 1.1060/70 resistance, but that isn’t for me.
I prefer to wait for a daily close above channel resistance above 1.1080 or perhaps an eventual break below 1.0930.
However, I stand by what I wrote on September 6.
Given the broader descending channel that began last year, the pair has more room to move higher than lower.
That doesn’t mean it will move higher, but I don’t want to sell the euro when it’s bouncing from a thirteen-month channel support like this.
I would rather sell at higher levels if possible, but I’m not opposed to buying a break higher in the meantime.
In summary, a close above 1.1080/90 channel resistance would expose the 1.1200 area while a break below 1.1000 would open the door to 1.0930 horizontal support.