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EURUSD Reaches First Target; Is the Rally Over?

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On June 29th, I wrote about a EURUSD channel.

The descending nature of the channel, along with the recent uptrend, suggested it could act like a bull flag pattern.

In other words, it hinted at a bullish continuation.

On July 6th, EURUSD closed above that channel, which I discussed here.

We also reviewed the price action surrounding this breakout in last Sunday’s forecast video.

Then on Tuesday, the euro closed above the 1.1350 resistance level.

As you can see, 1.1350 had served as resistance ever since the pair tested it on June 16th.

Tuesday’s break above 1.1350 triggered a run at the top of the descending channel at 1.1420, another level I spoke about on Sunday.

But as you can see, buyers have had some trouble at 1.1420.

So is it time to short EURUSD?

Not for me, it isn’t.

I remain long here from 1.1299, which I also announced within the membership site on July 7th.

Some weakness or even a pullback into 1.1350 as new support isn’t out of the question, but I don’t think buyers are done just yet.

As I mentioned two weekends ago, the final objective of this latest breakout could be near 1.1600.

That’s the top of the multi-year wedge pattern that we’ve discussed since May.

EURUSD monthly wedge pattern
EURUSD monthly time frame

So, although EURUSD could struggle at 1.1420 and again at 1.1500, we may not see a significant pullback until 1.1600.

That’s only the case as long as the multi-year wedge pattern above stays intact.

I also want to see the euro stay above 1.1350 on a daily closing basis.

A daily close back below that level would signal weakness and would also kick me out of my long position.

Alternatively, a close above 1.1420 would expose 1.1500 followed by 1.1600.

That’s my base case for now.

Want to watch the EURUSD video I just released in the member’s area?

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EURUSD bull flag pattern
EURUSD daily time frame

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9 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Nihat says

I am also Long EURUSD from 1.12850.

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speculator says

Thanks Justin.

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Frano Grgić says

I am also bullish for now, but as it looks like we could see move back down because of Pinbar on daily time frame and candle formation I see on H4 suggests at least pullback to $1.1365.

I have uptrend channel on H4 time frame where the price hit uptrend resistance.

Until the price is above $1.1365 I am staying bullish and looking for bullish signal to enter. The exit is around $1.15000 where I will see what to do next.

Your target around $1.1600 is something to watch.

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    Mark Watson says

    Take a closer look, it isn’t a pinbar…it doesnt quite close within the previous day.

    Reply
UWAK JOHN says

Thanks Justin, I would factor this EURSUD Forecast in my daily review, watch out for those playouts forcasted and once I see the signs and confirmation I would keep catching on the expected pips therein. I am a member already.

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Samuel says

Thanks for the up dates.

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Mark says

Trendline from the March and June highs was broken yesterday and this, so far, looks like it might be a pullback and re-test.

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Valentine says

His signal and predictions are always true. I respe t u sir

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