EURUSD: Don’t Ignore the July Fakeout

Today I’m going to share the EURUSD levels I’m watching in August, including a July fakeout that could have significant implications later this year.

We’ll also take a look at the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the range the dollar finds itself in this month.

Watch the video below and scroll down for the annotated charts and analysis.

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EURUSD edged slightly higher late last week following Friday’s non-farm payroll.

The pair bounced from the September 2022 trend line at 1.0920, and is holding well above that figure today.

However, despite being above the 2022 support, I can’t see any reason to be long-term bullish EURUSD apart from the recent trend.

And a trend alone isn’t a reason to be bullish or bearish on a market.

You have to take the trend in context to the surrounding price action, as everything in trading is a matter of context.

Months ago, I wrote about a multi-decade trend line on the EURUSD higher time frames.

The level stretches back several decades, and although euro bulls tried to break back above it last month, they ultimately failed.

Watch the video above for all of the details.

That failed level comes in at 1.1100, making it a significant resistance for EURUSD.

Furthermore, as discussed in recent weeks, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has reclaimed the 101.00 region, so that becomes a massive support area for the dollar.

It’s unclear as of now, but my expectation is a significant EURUSD correction while the pair is below 1.1100.

That’s especially true if we see the DXY reclaim the 103.00 area in the coming weeks.

As always, all of the content here is my opinion only and is not financial advice.