As of this writing, the EURUSD has carved out the third largest single-session range of 2016. The only two sessions that trump (pun intended) today’s 370 pip move are the March 10th ECB surprise and the June 24th Brexit.
But today is far from over. And by the look of it, the US dollar is just getting warmed up.
While I’m still waiting for the dust to settle from yesterday’s U.S. election bombshell, there are a few levels I’m keeping a close eye on going forward.
First and foremost we have yesterday’s retest and subsequent rejection from trend line resistance that extends from the current 2016 high at 1.1615. I’ve mentioned the area between 1.1120 and 1.1150 a couple of times in recent days.
In fact, the pair has rejected various resistance levels during the last 24 hours. The real test, however, is where the pair closes today’s session at 5 pm EST.
A daily close back below the trend line that extends from the March 10th ECB low would keep the bearish bias intact. Below that we have the July low at 1.0950, which just recently came under fire.
But perhaps the most significant development from today’s selloff is that it keeps my bearish long-term outlook for the pair alive. Until I have reason to think otherwise, I’ll continue to view the last twenty months of price action as corrective with a measured objective at the 2000 low of 0.8225.
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