The EURUSD is refusing to back down from the 1.1200 resistance area.
We saw this region attract sellers last week, particularly during the last trading day of 2019 which resulted in a bearish pin bar.
This descending channel that extends from the January 2019 high has been on our radar since September.
Back then, I discussed how EURUSD sellers needed to be careful, and the channel top around 1.1200 was always the longer-term target following a bounce.
Now that the euro is here, it’s time to discuss the current situation and what a breakout could mean.
I want to start by stating that I’m not buying the EURUSD, at least not yet.
As I’ve mentioned several times recently, it’s going to take a daily close above descending channel resistance to extend the rally.
That was the case last week, and it’s still true today.
Given the way the EURUSD is refusing to back away from the 1.1200 region, though, a breakout may not be far away.
Of course, that doesn’t mean it will happen.
Trading has always been, and always will be a game of probabilities.
If we do see buyers close the pair above 1.1200 this week, we could very well see this short-term uptrend extend higher toward 1.1280.
So what could trigger an extended move lower?
In my opinion, it’s going to take a daily close below ascending channel support near 1.1075 to reignite the bearish pressure we saw late last year.
Until that happens, the EURUSD short-term uptrend is alive and well.
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