The EURUSD has trended lower since January when it reached 1.2350.
It looked like the 1.1950 support area would hold in February, but the bounce eventually failed, and the EURUSD broke below 1.1950 in early March.
Since that time, the EURUSD has been a tricky market to analyze.
It’s been even worse to trade unless you managed to catch the latest downtrend from 1.1950.
However, the recent price action suggests the EURUSD may have found a short-term bottom.
This doesn’t mean 1.1700 is the low for the foreseeable future, but I do think today’s breakout could send the euro back to 1.1950, at a minimum.
Any rotation lower into the support area between 1.1780 and 1.1800 should attract buyers.
As long as that area holds, I like the idea of a move to 1.1840, with a close above that opening the door to 1.1950.
While it may not look that significant at first glance, 1.1950 has been a key pivot on the weekly time frame since last August.
Alternatively, a daily close below 1.1780 would signal weakness, and a move below 1.1700 would negate the idea altogether.