Daily Price Action

Crude Oil: Ready for the Next Leg Lower?


I first discussed a bearish crude oil scenario on October 7th of last year.

At the time, oil was still trading above the 74.00 handle. By the end of 2018, the market was testing the 2017 low near 42.50.

It was the most aggressive selloff for oil since the middle of 2015.

But since carving a multi-year low on Christmas Eve, crude has bounced back.

However, the price action over the last six weeks appears to be corrective. In other words, it’s consolidation following the recent three-month selloff.

That means the next short opportunity may not be far away.

The wedge pattern you see below can be drawn on either the 4-hour or daily time frames, but it is more apparent on the 4-hour chart.

Earlier today, sellers confirmed the break below support near the 54.00 handle.

That means any retest of the area between 54.50 and 55.50 will likely attract an influx of selling pressure.

There isn’t much in the way of key support until 50.70. A daily close below that would expose the 46.20 area.

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If this plays out as a conventional rising wedge pattern, the objective is the 2018 low near 42.50.

All of the above is contingent on sellers keeping the price below 55.50 resistance on a daily closing basis. A failure to do so would turn crude oil higher.

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Crude oil rising wedge pattern

Leave a Comment:

Samson says

Thank you J, also a closer look the daily time frame has something like inverse head and shoulder..

Uzoma Nnamdi says

Thank you sir

Henryk says

ok.Justin,bardzo dobra analiza .mam otwarte zlecenie eurcad usdcad i cadjpy

Isiyaku Ibrahim says

Thanks Justin

Ibrahim Muhammad says

I thought oil is guided by fundamental 99 percent.

Prashant says

wti basis 54.80 around was the lvl it was not able to break higher in q4 2018 .. having breached that lvl .. the structure shud be supported now mayb

Bart says

once a month keep your e yes open on Canada, its like NFP

    Bart says

    this baby is going south

      Bart says



its comfort to sell here

Bishops69 says

Goodmorning all,

Question to the correlation Canadian pairs, what does that mean, if the price of oil goes up, than for USD/CAD- EUR/CAD- GBP/CAD goes down.

    Ehiz says

    Yes, Bishop

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