Daily Price Action

AUDUSD: June Rally a Sign of Strength or Early Capitulation?


The AUDUSD has taken full advantage of the latest risk-on rally.

Since the March selloff that reached 0.5500, the Australian dollar has clawed back all 1,500 pips it lost.

It’s been an impressive rally, for sure.

But this latest move above 0.6670 doesn’t feel right to me.

I’ve said the same thing about the NZDUSD taking out 0.6250 and also the CADJPY move above 78.40.

It’s no coincidence that all three moves started on June 1st.

However, a gut feel about something doesn’t constitute a trading edge.

To get a better sense of where this market is headed, I need to see how AUDUSD reacts to the 0.6670 area.

That’s going to be the hinge for the pair over the coming days and weeks.

The longer the price remains above 0.6670 on a daily closing basis, the more likely it is that AUDUSD is about to move even higher.

Alternatively, if we see the Australian dollar give up 0.6670 as support, I’ll be interested in shorting the pair for a move to 0.6460 and perhaps 0.6280.

Keep an eye on the next two weeks in June, though.

As I’ve mentioned with other pairs like NZDUSD and CADJPY, June’s closing price should be telling.

But we might not have to wait that long.

Any daily and especially weekly close below 0.6670 would be an early warning sign of capitulation.

Just be sure you’re using New York close charts (like the charts I use) so that each daily session opens and closes at 5 pm EST.

It would also signal that the June rally was, in fact, a bull trap.

On the flip side, a convincing bounce from 0.6670 followed by a June close above it would keep the rally intact.

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AUDUSD daily time frame

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Justin Bennett says

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Martin Njeru says

Aussie is on a bullish trend however last week it lost some 130 pips and its trying to regain…. I am looking for a signal to buy the pair its without doubts the pair goes hand in hand with AUDJPY TO add this EURNZD is on a downtrend and the pair gives the KIWI a room to go up and my short position tells me to hold more as Inside bar and Fakey was approaching as per the writing….so i am direction bias with AUssie

Samuel says

Thank you Sir for the up dates .

Aruxandei Dorin says

Thank you very much Justin for your opinion.

ebere darlington says

Your analysis I agree with totally.

fabio says

lateral phase then decrease 6800

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