Daily Price Action

AUDUSD: Following Up on Wednesday’s Sell Signal


On Tuesday we discussed how the AUDUSD rally was in jeopardy below 0.7620. This area is the intersection of former trend line support from the June 2nd low as well as several highs from last month.

It’s also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the May low at 0.7328 to the June high at 0.7711.

Shortly after Tuesday’s commentary, the pair retested the new resistance area at 0.7620. Despite their best efforts, buyers were unable to push the price above the area on a 4-hour closing basis. This formed a bearish pin bar as noted in the chart below.

If you were watching for a sell signal at the time, that was it. For those who missed the entry, there will likely be additional opportunities on the way down as long as sellers maintain control.

The next key support area to keep an eye on comes in at 0.7565/70. This was Wednesday’s low as well as a key pivot between the 7th and 26th of June. Moreover, it’s the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the May low at 0.7328 to the June high at 0.7711.

Below 0.7565/70 we have the 0.7515 handle followed by 0.7475. And as long as sellers keep prices below 0.7620 on a daily closing basis, these downside targets will remain exposed.

Bear in mind that tomorrow (July 7th) hosts the latest non-farm payroll figure at 8:30 am EST. If you have any U.S. dollar exposure, you will want to keep this event on your calendar and perhaps take action beforehand to reduce or eliminate any risk.

With that said, the two currencies that are sometimes known to move irrespective of USD strength or lack thereof are the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. Look no further than today’s session where the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are down alongside the USD Index (DXY).

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AUDUSD 4-hour chart

Leave a Comment:

mustapha says

hi justin

first :
i want to know if the color of pin bar is important or just the forme
and the empacement?
second :
the rules you teash us are just good for the forex or even for stocks,
commodities, indice….?

and can i use them for the four hours frame?

sorry for my english
i want to thank you for the pin bar course i really apreciate

thank you for all what you do for us for free

    Ajaz Elahi says

    Hi Mustapha

    I believe that the colour of the pin bar is not important. It’s important to understand why the pin bar occured and from that… what is “highly probable” to happen next. Having the ability to dissect price action and understand every move is the key.

    Best of luck.

    Justin Bennett says

    Mustapha, the color is not important.

    It can work in any market, but I’ve found pin bars to be most effective in the FX market.

    Yes, the AUDUSD chart above is the 4 hour.

    You’re welcome.

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