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AUDJPY Range Break to Target 2016 U.S. Elections Low

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

Yesterday I included the AUDUSD in the weekly commentary for the first time in several months. The Australian dollar has been confined to a relatively “messy” range since mid-June making conditions less than ideal.

A look at another Australian dollar pair, the AUDJPY, shows an even broader range that dates back to March of this year.

If you recall from yesterday’s weekly commentary, the range on the AUDUSD was approximately 140 pips and lasted for four weeks. However, the AUDJPY has been carving an impressive 400 pip range for the last five months.

Not only does a range of this size allow for more room to run while consolidating, but it also offers greater potential once broken.

You see, a market will often travel a distance equal to the height of the range once the breakout occurs. So if the distance between 80.60 support and 84.50 resistance is 390 pips, we can measure 390 pips below 80.60 support to find a potential target.

It just so happens that the November 2016 U.S. elections low is 76.85. It may vary from broker to broker due to the high levels of volatility during that session, but that’s the general area.

The distance from 80.60 range support and 76.85 is 375 pips. That’s only 15 pips away from the 390 pip target I discussed above. And you better believe the market will be paying close attention to that November 2016 low when we get there.

All that said, keep in mind that nothing is confirmed until the AUDJPY closes the day (New York 5 pm EST) below support at 80.60. As it stands now, the daily close is still six hours away which means the level is still serving as support.

As long as buyers hold 80.60 support on a daily closing basis, this 390 pip range is intact. On the other hand, if sellers force a sub 80.60 daily close, the area would become new resistance and would, therefore, attract additional selling pressure.

Key support below 80.60 comes in at 78.90 followed by the November 2016 low at 76.85.

Last but not least, be sure to mind the mean. The AUDJPY is currently more than 100 pips below the 10 and 20 daily EMAs, which means we could see additional strength or at least some consolidation before the next leg lower materializes.

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AUDJPY 400 pip range on the daily chart

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11 comments
IDOGEI emmanuel says

Thanks Justin

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Pierre Mifsud says

You are very good…….at the time of writing it is 80.49…..potentially I perfectly agree with you….as from wave harmonics from the weekly chart it can actually reach as low as the 74.67 handle

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Adenyi says

You are truly genius on Fx set up because I have actually work on some of the set up an it’s very impressive. Well done.

Reply
Trond Midtun says

Thanks Justin, aud/ jpy is aleady down from support, it will close below 80.60 ny time 🙂

Reply
nghĩa says

_ 2 đường MA mấy vậy ạ?

Reply
neophyta says

Thanks for the useful guide. Please give me your opinion on the following.
On the weekly time frame, is it correct to see a head & shoulders pattern with the left shoulder being on 12 February 2017? The triple head that follows on 23/7/17, 17/9/17 & 7/1/18, how does it affect?
Sorry for any silly conclusions ….. I am new in forex trading.
Thanks.

Reply
derrick says

thats awsome sir thanks so much

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Femi says

Great analysis there.

Reply
Johnson Robert says

Thanks justin

Reply
MIMI says

This was brilliant analyses and trade and hit the 78.90 support on Friday (7 Sept). Thank you!!

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