AUDJPY: Bearish Continuation or False Break?

Important: This site uses New York Close Forex Charts so that each 24-hour session starts and ends at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action.

I wrote about the AUDJPY last Wednesday.

The idea was quite simple: wait for a close below the short-term range support at 75.40 followed by a retest of the area as new resistance.

Step one was a close below 75.40, which Friday did without hesitation.

The second step was a retest of the 75.40 region as new resistance.

That’s occurring as I type this post.

But so far, we don’t have a reason to think 75.40 will hold as resistance. Sellers are doing their part up to this point, but will it continue?

We never know where a market is going.

However, we can use the clues it offers to determine what is likely.

One clue I use in every situation is the daily close at 5 pm EST.

If today closes the day below 75.40, the idea is intact. It would also give me a bit more confidence in my bearish outlook for AUDJPY.

That said, there are a few upcoming events that could decide the outcome here.

First up are retail sales at 9:30 pm EST. That’s just a few hours into Tuesday’s session that begins at 5 pm EST.

The second set of events include an RBA rate decision and statement at 12:30 am EST on Tuesday, followed by a presser five hours later.

As you can tell, the next 24 hours promise to be action-packed for a pair like AUDJPY.

I have no interest in trading the pair until I see where today closes. If it closes back above 75.40, there’s nothing more to discuss.

If it stays below 75.40, I will continue to look for a favorable short entry for a move to that key support zone around 73.00.

Another reason I’m playing this one safe is that I have two winning positions on in GBPNZD and EURNZD for a positive 1,130 pips on aggregate.

I’m in no hurry to add a black mark to a run like that.

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